Aggregated public profile · Not an official account.

Furkan Yildirim wrote that JPMorgan has included Bitcoin in its long-term return forecasts for the first time. The report, Yildirim said, serves pension funds, foundations, and insurers in planning their portfolios over a period of 10 to 15 years and includes more than 200 asset classes. Behind the forecast is an asset manager with $4.8 trillion. Bitcoin is listed at the top with an annual return of 10.0 percent. Yildirim compared it to US large-cap stocks with 7.5 percent, US real estate stocks (REITs) with 8.2 percent, US bonds with 5.6 percent, gold with 5.5 percent, and cash with 3.2 percent. Moreover, Yildirim reminded that JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon had called Bitcoin a fraud in 2017. By 2026, the bank's asset management now attributes the highest expected return to the cryptocurrency among the compared asset classes, he wrote. #Bitcoin #Investment #JPMorgan (translated)

Furkan Yildirim wrote that he had simulated more than 700,000 grid trading bots for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, gold, and oil in the past few days. He had analyzed 1.4 million candles with fees, funding, and liquidations, and had calculated more than 9 billion candles in total. He examined which settings in futures grid bots determined profit or liquidation. The results were intended to show, among other things, what effect a commonly discussed setting in tutorials had in the simulation, how to calculate an appropriate trading range, and why a certain bot was more dangerous than others. From the data, he also developed a tool that calculates settings for individual markets. Yildirim referred to raw data with 205,686 lines in a file and asked whether he should record a video of the results and the tool on the same day. #GridTrading #Kryptowährungen #FuturesTrading (translated)

Furkan Yildirim wrote that he had only recently learned that ntv had also published the interview on YouTube. He referred to it as the most successful video in the "ntv Krypto" section and said he did not expect the comments. https://t.co/Cpkspzvw6x #Krypto #Interview #YouTube (translated)

Furkan Yildirim stated that he has begun transforming his macro contributions into short videos with animations to present connections more understandably and reach more people with well-founded analyses. He asked for feedback and inquired whether he should also publish the videos on X. So far, he has only shared them on Instagram, TikTok, and YouTube Shorts. #Meinung #Kreativität #SocialMedia (translated)

Furkan Yildirim wrote that Bank of America has been examining the correlation between the yield of ten-year US Treasury bonds and stocks since 1962. At yields below 2 percent, the value was plus 0.5, and between 4 and 5 percent, it was plus 0.2. Between 5 and 6 percent, there was no correlation; at yields of 6 to 7 percent, the correlation was minus 0.3, from 7 to 8 percent minus 0.2, and above 8 percent minus 0.3. According to Yildirim, Bank of America explained the change by stating that low interest rates are usually associated with a strong economy, while high interest rates increasingly lead to inflation and expensive loans, making government bonds compete with stocks. The bank summarizes the thresholds, according to Yildirim, as follows: starting from 5 percent, investors become indifferent to stocks and bonds; above 6 percent, higher interest rates harm stocks, and above 7 percent, valuations decline significantly. The ten-year yield reached 5.36 percent in the previous week, the highest level since 2002, and had risen by around 0.7 percentage points since July. After inflation data on Wednesday, it jumped to 5.33 percent; at the time of his contribution, it was around 5.1 percent. Yildirim wrote that the market is already behaving as if yields were above 6 percent: according to Goldman Sachs, the correlation with the S&P 500 was minus 0.56, down from minus 0.64 in June – the lowest value since the start of the data series in 2011. Moreover, according to Yildirim, the ten-year bond is now yielding more than the S&P 500 generates in profits per dollar invested; this was last the case in the early 2000s. As an indication of the importance of inflation, he mentioned that high interest rates during times of high inflation have almost always been a burden for stocks. US inflation was at 3.7 percent in September, up from 3.4 percent in August; gasoline had cost 34 percent more than a year earlier. After the data, the probability of another Fed rate hike in October increased from about 20 to 47 percent. #Börse #Aktienmarkt #Zinsen (translated)

Furkan Yildirim wrote that chip stocks have fallen sharply worldwide. He named as a trigger remarks made by Broadcom CEO Hock Tan, who said at a conference in Singapore on Monday that many AI investors do not understand what they are investing in and have set expectations too high. SK Hynix lost 10.09 percent, Samsung 7.39 percent, and the South Korean stock market 5.46 percent. At the same time, Broadcom expects annual AI chip revenues of $230 billion by 2028 – four times the current value. Yildirim referred to Samsung's recent figures: the company reported a record operating profit of around $80 billion the week before, an increase of 782 percent. Five days later, the stock dropped by 7.39 percent. According to Handelsblatt, Samsung and SK Hynix are now valued on the stock market at just under four times their expected annual profit for 2027 – similar to distressed European car manufacturers. The market apparently no longer trusts the record profits, wrote Yildirim. He highlighted as a key statement from Tan's speech that capital is now scarcer than chips, memory, or power. Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan identified capital and its costs as the greatest challenge at the same conference. Yildirim also quoted a projection from Apollo economist Torsten Slok: Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle could invest $892 billion in data centers this year and even $1.1 trillion by 2027. Public budgets and social security in Germany are expected to invest a total of approximately $170.6 billion by 2025. The companies are increasingly financing their expenditures through bonds and competing with governments for investors, which, according to Yildirim, could raise interest rates for everyone. A model published by the U.S. think tank Brookings estimates that the U.S. will need investments of $10.3 trillion in AI infrastructure by 2032. According to the model, for this to be profitable, the AI sector would need to generate approximately $3.7 trillion in annual revenue by 2032, accounting for 9.2 percent of total U.S. economic output. Yildirim also wrote that Broadcom partially guarantees a loan package of around $42 billion, with which AI developer Anthropic is financing its computing chips for 2027. By the end of October, the first large data center operators will present their figures. The question now is no longer merely whether enough chips can be produced but also who will be able to pay for them. #ChipIndustrie #Investitionen #KünstlicheIntelligenz (translated)

Furkan Yildirim wrote that his first television interview had been recorded. When he started publishing analyses of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies from his student dormitory ten years ago, he could not have imagined standing one day on the trading floor of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange for an interview with ntv. The experience had long been on his wish list. Yildirim thanked his community for their support, questions, and long-standing loyalty. The interview was set to be broadcast on Wednesday on ntv; a longer version was to be published online. #Bitcoin #Krypto #Fernsehinterview (translated)

Furkan Yildirim asked why Wall Street professionals are currently preparing for a potential severe stock market crash, in his view, even though the S&P 500 is just below its record. He cited data such as the Skew Index and pointed out that hedge funds are positioned defensively according to Goldman Sachs as they have been for years. In six weeks, S&P 500 futures worth $63.7 billion have been sold; at the same time, there are record bets on falling prices for small US stocks. There is particular demand for protection against extreme cases. Yildirim announced a macro deep dive with 20 charts from Goldman Sachs, BofA, Deutsche Bank, and TS Lombard. In it, he wants to address market positioning, possible parallels to 1987, 1994, 2000, or 2023, three scenarios weighted by him, and possible consequences for gold and Bitcoin. He asked whether he should record the video on the same day. #Marktanalyse #Investment #Wirtschaft (translated)

Furkan Yildirim wrote that the US Treasury could auction fewer long-term government bonds as early as November and possibly discontinue the 20-year term altogether. According to Yildirim, Citigroup expects Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent to announce a $3 billion reduction in auctions for 20- and 30-year bonds each on November 4. The financing gap is to be closed with government securities maturing within a year at the latest. The department may also ask large banks next week whether pension funds now prefer bonds from Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet to those of the state. The 20-year bond was reintroduced in 2020 after a 34-year hiatus and now offers nearly 5.7 percent interest, more than any other US maturity. At the end of 2020, its yield was just under 1.5 percent. At the same time, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, and SpaceX had already issued dollar bonds amounting to more than $180 billion in 2026; according to Yildirim, Amazon's bonds extend to 2076. According to asset manager TwentyFour, which Yildirim cited, Japanese investors are now receiving enough interest at home to invest their money there. Citi strategist Jason Williams wrote that pension funds may currently be more inclined than usual to invest in long-term corporate bonds of good quality. However, BNP Paribas strategists doubted that smaller auctions would reduce the government's financing costs. Yildirim also pointed out that the yield on 10-year US bonds serves as a basis for mortgages and many other loans, and Bessent had referred to it as an important measure of his success. With an annual deficit of nearly $2 trillion, the debt burden continues to grow as competition for long-term buyers increases. #Finanzen #Anleihen #Wirtschaft (translated)

Furkan Yildirim wrote that US consumer inflation expectations had risen to 3.9 percent, reaching the highest level since May 2023. A month earlier, they had been at 3.6 percent. For the next twelve months, Americans expected price increases of 9.2 percent for medical costs, 7.5 percent for education costs, 6.8 percent for rents, 5.5 percent for food, and 4.8 percent for gasoline. Wages were expected to rise by only 2.6 percent during the same period. At the same time, households planned to spend 5.5 percent more – the highest figure since May 2023. Their income was only expected to grow by 3.1 percent, according to Yildirim. He also wrote that more households reported a worse financial situation than a year ago and that loans were harder to obtain. Prices were outpacing wages, he summarized. #Inflation #Wirtschaft #Verbraucherpreise (translated)

Furkan Yildirim wrote that the Bitcoin correction has occurred and many are now getting nervous again. He referred to a post from September 21, in which he explained that for him, it is not crucial which price level is exceeded, but how the next correction will unfold. Now it is what matters. #Bitcoin #Korrektur #Kryptowährung (translated)

Furkan Yildirim wrote that, according to recent reports, SpaceX intends to borrow 40 billion dollars to purchase Nvidia chips. Nvidia itself holds around 123 million SpaceX shares and is simultaneously building a 500-billion-dollar platform with six major financial institutions that offers loans to customers for Nvidia chips and guarantees part of it. Yildirim described this as a circular flow of money. According to the Financial Times, 10 billion dollars of the SpaceX deal should come from bank loans and 30 billion from bonds. Apollo is supposed to lead it, which according to Yildirim is also one of the partners of Nvidia's platform. When SpaceX was looking for investors, they received a two-page memo with space images describing the data centers as being located in an unspecified place in space. An investor reportedly asked, according to the Financial Times, how he should explain that to his investment committee. Yildirim also pointed to skepticism in the bond market: SpaceX sold bonds worth 25 billion dollars in June; the bonds, maturing in 2056, are currently trading at around 85 cents on the dollar and have a risk premium at junk bond levels. SpaceX reported losses of 4.9 billion dollars in 2025 and 4.28 billion dollars in the first quarter of 2026 alone. Nevertheless, the company is officially considered an investment-worthy debtor at the second worst level of this category. According to Yildirim, this classification allows insurers and pension funds to purchase bonds on a larger scale. Apollo's life insurer Athene typically takes a large share in such deals. As further evidence of the development, Yildirim cited information from Goldman Sachs, indicating that by 2026 about 500 billion dollars in AI-related debt had already been taken on. By the end of the year, the bank expects more than 750 billion dollars and nearly 1.2 trillion dollars for 2027. According to the Financial Times, Nvidia also negotiated with insurers at the end of September about the transfer of default risks related to chip loans. Yildirim wrote that the investment boom is increasingly being financed through debt and referred to a detailed video on the topic published the previous day. #SpaceX #Nvidia #Finanzen (translated)

Furkan Yildirim wrote that his video about a possible "Euro crisis 2.0" as well as the interest and debt crisis had reached many viewers and had been among the most widely viewed in recent weeks. However, all of a sudden, it is hardly being displayed anymore. He asked whether YouTube had restricted its visibility and said he had never experienced anything like this on his channel. Yildirim requested to share his post and the video. https://t.co/f9p3N0TYC9 #Eurokrise #YouTube #Finanzen (translated)

Furkan Yildirim wrote that the euro crisis has returned and is now affecting France. The second-largest economy in the Eurozone has about ten times as much debt as Greece did in 2010. France is now paying more interest than Italy, the risk premium is at its highest level since 2012, and the insurance against a French state bankruptcy has more than doubled within a month, he pointed out. He also referred to burning trash cans in the streets and demands for a debt cut. Yildirim said he had invested a lot of time in a new macro deep dive with nearly 30 charts and graphs, as well as data from 2011 to the present. In it, he claims he wants to address the repetition of the 2011 pattern, past and current ECB decisions, the demand for a debt cut, possible bailout measures or a state bankruptcy, as well as consequences for savings. He also wants to explain what he himself is making of the situation. He asked if he should record the video on the same day. #Eurokrise #Frankreich #Schulden (translated)

The US inflation has fallen overnight by 0.3 percentage points. Not a single price has decreased because of this. The calculation method has changed, retroactively to 2021. For July, the US statistics agency previously reported a core inflation of 3.3% (excluding energy and food), now it shows 3.0%. For August, 3.0% was recorded, although economists had expected 3.3%. On paper, this is a clear decline. Three areas were adjusted: software, legal consulting, and asset management. The last one best illustrates the problem. An advisor charges a 1% fee on your portfolio. If the stock market rises by 20%, you pay 20% more in dollars, even though he has never raised his rate. Statistics had previously counted this as a price increase. In May, this inflation was at 21.6%; using the new method, it would be 14.3%. The Canadian bank RBC estimates that the new method alone pushes core inflation down by about 0.18 percentage points, mainly due to software. A large part of today’s decline is thus purely a matter of calculation. Even on Wall Street, the number is read cautiously. BNY strategist John Velis advises treating any softer value after the adjustment as a statistical correction. His conclusion: less noise, the same amount of inflation. Why this matters: Two weeks ago, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2023 to 3.75% to 4.00%. 16 out of 18 members expect another increase this year. This inflation figure is what decides that and it impacts credit rates, mortgages, and the direction of stocks and Bitcoin. On paper, inflation has decreased today. At the supermarket checkout, however, no one notices anything. If you are interested in such macro insights and they help you, feel free to interact with the post. 🧡 #Inflation #USMarkt #Wirtschaft (translated)

Meine Timeline ist gerade voll mit „Top 5 Altcoins für den Bullrun". Mein Postfach ist gleichzeitig voll mit Anfragen von Krypto-Projekten. Alle im Prinzip gleich: Ich bekomme unmoralische Angebote und Coins obendrauf, wenn ich sie meiner Community vorstelle. Zwei Dinge, die zeitgleich passieren. Reiner Zufall, oder? #Krypto #Altcoins #Bullrun