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Joan Larroumec stated that the French private pension system was also heavily in deficit, estimating its deficit at 77 billion euros. He argued that the public system's deficit reached 50 billion euros per year, masked in his view by accounting overcontributions, notably 82% for the state and 126% for the military. According to his calculations, the private system received 228 billion euros in contributions, against 300 billion euros in pensions paid, or 305 billion euros including management fees. He indicated that the gap was covered by subsidies, allocated taxes, and debt. He specifically cited 37 billion euros in levies related to the CSG and allocated taxes, 24 billion euros in reimbursements by the state for exemptions from charges, and 17 billion euros collected from family and unemployment funds. Larroumec estimated that the pay-as-you-go system should have been adjusted 25 years ago, either by lowering pensions or raising the retirement age, due to the aging population and the decrease in the number of active workers per retiree. He attributed the lack of reform to a lack of political will and opposition from the population, stating that the deficits had been financed through overcontributions in the public sector and by taxes, subsidies, and debt in the private sector. He also disputed the figures from the Retirement Orientation Council, which estimated the deficit at 5 billion euros. According to his calculations, 420 billion euros were spent each year on pensions, against 282 billion euros in contributions collected, leaving 137 billion euros to be found elsewhere in the economy. He suggested that political leaders were staying silent about the problem because retirees formed the largest electorate in France and that attempts at reform had cost some elected officials their jobs. #Retraites #France #Déficit (translated)

Joan Larroumec stated that a report from the IGF revealed that social contributions charged to civil servants, which could reach 80% of their salary, inflated public budgets and, according to him, masked the pension deficit. He argued that this method also distorted international comparisons and hindered the measurement of the burden of civil servants' pensions, which could soon become the largest expense for the state. According to him, France ranked low in terms of sovereign expenditures because it devoted the majority of its resources to pensions. He added that he had created graphs to illustrate his point. #Retraites #Économie #France (translated)

Joan Larroumec believed that Jean-Luc Mélenchon's success with young people revealed their lack of future prospects. According to him, the current system favored older generations in accessing the best jobs and housing, while young people paid high retirement contributions without being able to hope for a comparable pension. He also stated that the level of taxation made it difficult to become wealthy through work and that inheritance inequalities perpetuated social status gaps. Larroumec said that the threat of artificial intelligence was a major concern neglected by politicians. He cited the United States, where, in his view, the employment of 22-25 year-olds in jobs exposed to AI was already about 19% below its trajectory. He predicted that companies would hire less and prioritize protecting their existing employees, often older, and questioned the future of highly educated young people without jobs. He added that young people were waiting for politicians to offer a vision of a desirable and fair life in France for the coming decades, as well as clear rules of the game. According to him, the old path of studying, finding a good job, buying an apartment, and advancing based on merit no longer existed, and no one on the political scene was living up to those expectations. #jeunesse #inégalités #avenir (translated)

Joan Larroumec presented the tensions between France and Germany as a result of increasing competition, particularly in the defense industry. He indicated that Berlin planned military spending of €108 billion in 2026, compared to €57 billion for Paris, and nearly €140 billion in 2027. According to him, Germany was seeking to use these expenditures as a lever for economic transformation, while its historical industrial model was weakened. Larroumec notably cited the decline in German exports to China, which he claimed fell from €106 billion in 2022 to €81 billion in 2025, as well as a reduction of 142,400 jobs in the German automotive industry since 2019. He also wrote that German defense start-ups had received $3.5 billion in investments in 2026, compared to $375 million in France, and that Berlin had concluded a framework agreement with Helsing and Stark that could reach €4.3 billion. He estimated that this strategy heightened rivalries between the two countries and jeopardized their joint programs. He reported that Paris and Berlin acknowledged on June 8 that the SCAF could not be successfully executed, and that the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces announced Germany's abandonment of the MGCS tank program. He also mentioned competition in drones, artificial intelligence, and space, where, according to him, Germany was seeking to reduce France's position. Finally, Larroumec argued that France's financial difficulties limited its ability to invest in defense and risked weakening its industry. He stated that French and German interests were becoming increasingly misaligned and that this situation could lead to chaotic episodes in Europe. #France #Allemagne #Défense (translated)