Olivier Blanchard

The author said a reposted graph was particularly relevant to France, as it showed interest rates rising gradually and then sharply when debt appeared to be becoming unsustainable. They added that the paper behind the graph was due to be published that week and said they would post more once it was out. #économie #dette #France #FR

Bad news for the ECB. Great news for the IMF. Hard to think of a more competent person for the IMF finance job. Isabel and I have not always agreed, but I have always learned from our interactions, and she has done an amazing job at the ECB. Her speeches, and especially her #ECB #IMF #Finance #EU #DE #IT #IMF

Reason for specifically citing open weight (and therefore Chinese LLMs, but not only Chinese) is that, even if they have built-in guardrails, somebody with the relevant knowledge can go in and remove them. In principle, harder to do with Anthropic or Open AI LLMs. #OpenAI #AIethics #LLM #CN

Many comments on the tweet about the risk of a public debt crisis in France point to the role of the central bank, the ECB in this case, in avoiding multiple equilibria. And, indeed, the ECB has a major role to play. On paper, it is easy. There are three zones, determined by #PublicDebt #ECB #FranceFinance #FR #EU

I keep being asked. How long can France go on with budget deficits and increasing debt until we get a crisis? The answer: I cannot tell. Not because I am particularly dumb (this is a separate issue). But because there is a potentially large danger zone, where the crisis may or #France #BudgetDeficit #DebtCrisis #FR

Europe 2050 project. Looking forward, European countries are facing unusually large fiscal challenges. High debt to start, still large primary deficits in many countries, aging combined with pay-as-you-go retirement systems, a needed defense buildup, mitigation and adaptation #Europe2050 #FiscalChallenges #Sustainability #EU #DE #FR #IT #ES #PL #NL #BE #SE #DK #FI #GR #PT #IE #AT #CZ #HU #RO #SK #BG #HR #SI #LT #LV #EE #LU #CY

Europe 2050 project. An important piece by Catherine de Vries on the structure of the European Union. https://t.co/mQhuc1EhCc Europe faces major challenges, but under increasing polarization and heterogeneity, unanimity rules often prevent progress. Thus, Europe must explore #Europe2050 #EuropeanUnion #CatherineDeVries #EU

The other major contribution on defense for the Europe 2050 project. By Thierry Chopin @Th_Chopin and Samuel Faure @samuelbhfaure : https://t.co/K7ktG4QBT6 They start from where we are and where we need to go. Since 2022, the EU has moved. Defense budget has increased by 47%, #EU2050 #Defense #BudgetIncrease #EU

One of two major contributions on defense for the Europe 2050 project. By General Autellet, former vice chief of French Armed Forces. https://t.co/zqaSM6Jpsi A deep and detailed analysis of how defense policy, in particular European defense, should look like in the 21st century. #DefensePolicy #Europe2050 #MilitaryStrategy #FR #EU

The other major contribution on defense for the Europe 2050 project. By Thierry Chopin @Th_Chopin and Samuel Faure @samuelbhfaure : https://t.co/K7ktG4R9IE They start from where we are and where we need to go. Since 2022, the EU has moved. Defense budget has increased by 47%, #Europe2050 #Defense #EUBudget #EU

From a 1953 speech by Eisenhower, cited by @HC_Richardson, a striking computation, and a deeper point: “The cost of one modern heavy bomber is this: a modern brick school in more than 30 cities. It is two electric power plants, each serving a town of 60,000 population. It is two #Eisenhower #MilitarySpending #Education #Thetweetdoesnotmentionanyspecificcountries;therefore #therearenocountrycodestoreturn.

I signed this manifesto.https://t.co/GtfT20Gf3k AI is clearly a technology with extremely dangerous left tails. Dystopian scenarios clearly have positive probability. Controlling its diffusion until the risks are better understood and potentially contained is clearly worth it. #AI #Dystopia #TechnologyRisks #Nospecificcountriesarementionedinthetweet.

Plusieurs candidats à l'élection présidentielle française, déclarés ou potentiels, préconisent la mise en place d'un système de retraite par capitalisation. Il convient de bien comprendre ce qu'un tel système peut — et ne peut pas — accomplir. Ce n'est pas une solution miracle. #Retraite #Élection2022 #Capitalisation #FR

For those who may have missed earlier tweets. Pascal Lamy, Enrico Letta, Beatrice Weder di Mauro, and I have launched a Europe 2050 project, asking a number of experts and policy makers where they want Europe to be in 2050 and how , concretely, how we can get from here to there. #Europe2050 #FutureOfEurope #PolicyMaking #EU

Europe 2050 project: Ukraine and California. A truly fascinating paper by Yuriy Gorodnichenko. https://t.co/BLy8uAQ5Ja Citing from the intro: “Years ago, California was the frontier of the “Wild West.” Today, it is the beating heart of innovation and the new economy. In much #Europe2050 #Ukraine #California #UA #US