Many comments on the tweet about the risk of a public debt crisis in France point to the role of the central bank, the ECB in this case, in avoiding multiple equilibria. And, indeed, the ECB has a major role to play. On paper, it is easy. There are three zones, determined by #PublicDebt #ECB #FranceFinance #FR #EU
I keep being asked. How long can France go on with budget deficits and increasing debt until we get a crisis? The answer: I cannot tell. Not because I am particularly dumb (this is a separate issue). But because there is a potentially large danger zone, where the crisis may or #France #BudgetDeficit #DebtCrisis #FR
Europe 2050 project. Looking forward, European countries are facing unusually large fiscal challenges. High debt to start, still large primary deficits in many countries, aging combined with pay-as-you-go retirement systems, a needed defense buildup, mitigation and adaptation #Europe2050 #FiscalChallenges #Sustainability #EU #DE #FR #IT #ES #PL #NL #BE #SE #DK #FI #GR #PT #IE #AT #CZ #HU #RO #SK #BG #HR #SI #LT #LV #EE #LU #CY
Europe 2050 project. An important piece by Catherine de Vries on the structure of the European Union. https://t.co/mQhuc1EhCc Europe faces major challenges, but under increasing polarization and heterogeneity, unanimity rules often prevent progress. Thus, Europe must explore #Europe2050 #EuropeanUnion #CatherineDeVries #EU
The other major contribution on defense for the Europe 2050 project. By Thierry Chopin @Th_Chopin and Samuel Faure @samuelbhfaure : https://t.co/K7ktG4QBT6 They start from where we are and where we need to go. Since 2022, the EU has moved. Defense budget has increased by 47%, #EU2050 #Defense #BudgetIncrease #EU
One of two major contributions on defense for the Europe 2050 project. By General Autellet, former vice chief of French Armed Forces. https://t.co/zqaSM6Jpsi A deep and detailed analysis of how defense policy, in particular European defense, should look like in the 21st century. #DefensePolicy #Europe2050 #MilitaryStrategy #FR #EU
The other major contribution on defense for the Europe 2050 project. By Thierry Chopin @Th_Chopin and Samuel Faure @samuelbhfaure : https://t.co/K7ktG4R9IE They start from where we are and where we need to go. Since 2022, the EU has moved. Defense budget has increased by 47%, #Europe2050 #Defense #EUBudget #EU
From a 1953 speech by Eisenhower, cited by @HC_Richardson, a striking computation, and a deeper point: “The cost of one modern heavy bomber is this: a modern brick school in more than 30 cities. It is two electric power plants, each serving a town of 60,000 population. It is two #Eisenhower #MilitarySpending #Education #Thetweetdoesnotmentionanyspecificcountries;therefore #therearenocountrycodestoreturn.
Ik vrees het moment dat politici gaan zeggen: lieve hemel, wat is onze schuldenberg toegenomen
I signed this manifesto.https://t.co/GtfT20Gf3k AI is clearly a technology with extremely dangerous left tails. Dystopian scenarios clearly have positive probability. Controlling its diffusion until the risks are better understood and potentially contained is clearly worth it. #AI #Dystopia #TechnologyRisks #Nospecificcountriesarementionedinthetweet.
Several candidates for the French presidential election, whether declared or potential, advocate for the implementation of a capitalized pension system. It is important to understand well what such a system can — and cannot — accomplish. It is not a miracle solution. (translated)
A must read (or must listen): https://t.co/2uGt1XhA8V . A dystopian but unfortunately surprising convincing of what could happen if Europe does not catch up on AI. It moved my prior. (and it is, despite the gloomy conclusions) a fun read. #AI #Dystopia #MustRead
For those who may have missed earlier tweets. Pascal Lamy, Enrico Letta, Beatrice Weder di Mauro, and I have launched a Europe 2050 project, asking a number of experts and policy makers where they want Europe to be in 2050 and how , concretely, how we can get from here to there. #Europe2050 #FutureOfEurope #PolicyMaking #EU
Europe 2050 project: Ukraine and California. A truly fascinating paper by Yuriy Gorodnichenko. https://t.co/BLy8uAQ5Ja Citing from the intro: “Years ago, California was the frontier of the “Wild West.” Today, it is the beating heart of innovation and the new economy. In much #Europe2050 #Ukraine #California #UA #US
I have embarked, with Beatrice Weder di Mauro, Pascal Lamy, and Enrico Letta on a major project, called Europe 2050. The idea is to think about what we want Europe to be in 2050, look at where it is today, and how we can go from here to there. (Thanks to Mr Putin and Trump for #Europe2050 #FutureOfEurope #GlobalChallenges #EU #RU #US
Europe 2050 project. The traditional rules of trade do not apply anymore. How should Europe think about trade? This is the question taken up by Alan Wolff, a former deputy director general of the WTO. Very much in the spirit of a coalition of the willing. Most of the world #Europe2050 #TradeInnovation #GlobalEconomy #EU
Nothing. (Original: fully agree. Investors are starting to question the safety of US Treasuries (Liberation day episode). One more reason to offer them an alternative at size. (An alternative to our proposal is for the German government to run much larger deficits, so the Bunds market is large and) #Investing #USTreasuries #MarketAlternatives #US #DE
The argument in the G7 report https://t.co/tznm2lRMUi that global imbalances create financial risks is unconvincing. Suppose there were no imbalances, either in stocks (assets= liabilities) or in flows (zero financial account). The risk that some investors decide to sell would -
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