We have the ability to overinterpret. The Tu-95MS disaster caused a lot of speculation. Meanwhile, there is no point in speculating. We shouldn't attribute any intentions to people suggesting things, as legends then circulate. Operational commander, Maj. Gen. pilot Ireneusz Nowak, sarcastically wrote that "Perhaps this particular one was the carrier of the Ch-101, which ended its flight near Tarnawa!" Just that, and that is enough. I am lucky to personally know General Nowak; he is from the old guard of the F-16, people trained in the USA, pilots often retrained by veterans of American military actions, mentally shaped as "tactical minded." Among this group were the first base commanders, division generals Darek Malinowski and Czarek Wiśniewski, along with Jacek Pszczoła, also a division general, a laid-back person who cannot be ruffled, and at the door of his office in Łask, there was at one time a sticker with a large wasp. They are exceptionally competent people, calm but capable of making quick decisions and unafraid of the responsibility for them. Another characteristic feature is truly outstanding intelligence. Why am I writing about this? Because people at this intellectual level often fall into the trap that what is clear and obvious to them is incomprehensible to others, and their minds drift into fascinating directions, to places that make one’s hair stand on end, wondering how it is even possible. That was the case this time as well. The flood of comments is overwhelming; personally, I was stunned. Scholars of the holy scripture wrote that the general suggests it was Polish saboteurs from Kedyw-bis. What can drop on a person's head, drops (in my case, my jaw, both hands, and the other leg). Maj. Gen. Ireneusz Nowak DOES NOT SUGGEST ANYTHING LIKE THAT. This is a gross overinterpretation. He only wrote that it may have been this Tu-95MS that fired the Ch-101 missile, which landed in Poland, as established as a result of deliberate action, not a mistake (such an impact point was in the navigational system’s memory, the only chance for a mistake being incorrect input of coordinates, which is very unlikely). Additionally, the missile did perform a classic "bump" with a vertical attack, driving into the ground almost at a right angle to it, executing the attack at the programmed location. Since the Tu-95MS belonging to the 22nd Guards Donbas Heavy Bomber Division from Engels (now Olenia) and to the 326th Tarnopol Heavy Bomber Division from Ukraine rotate to Engels or, less frequently, to Akhtubinsk to fire the Ch-101 at Ukraine for several hours, it is theoretically possible that this aircraft launched that missile (about 1 in 40 odds, as there are that many of them). What Maj. Gen. Ireneusz Nowak REALLY suggested, Mark Rutte, the Secretary General of NATO, somewhat more directly stated. The experienced politician knows that you have to lay it on the line for the simpletons because they will twist everything. They will make things up, add remarks, and generally go off in the wrong direction. Mark Rutte said several really important things: "Vladimir Putin knows he can never win against NATO; NATO is so strong that Russia has no chance of overcoming it." What does this mean? That NATO MUST BE UNITARY. WE MUST NOT ALLOW OURSELVES TO BE DIVIDED. He added: "NATO will defend every square kilometer of its territory. There is no doubt about it, and Putin knows this (...) If anything happens, we are ready to respond." “Well, first, about the word 'hybrid' – I have said this many times already. It sounds a bit too mild, almost cozy. In reality, we are talking about aggressive tactics in the gray zone. What we are dealing with is hostile drones, acts of diversion, sabotage, and even massive cyberattacks." "But I want to make it clear: we have all the response options we need. You will not always see them publicly. They will not always be symmetrical. It will not always operate on a 'tit for tat' basis, but I assure you that we have the tools for effective response, and the Russians know this perfectly well." THIS IS KEY. NATO IS NOT PASSIVE. NATO has many different tools for hybrid responses to Russia's hybrid attacks. And if Maj. Gen. Nowak suggested anything, IT WAS JUST THAT. You just need to understand it, know the context, listen to the statements of leading NATO politicians, and everything will become clear. And further Mark Rutte: “I do not claim that these malicious actions in the gray zone do not affect us. They do affect us, and sometimes it is very evident. However, our response can be multidimensional. Let’s look at the past. When, at the end of 2025, an underwater cable between Finland and Estonia was damaged, we launched Operation Baltic Sentry to protect our critical dilatory infrastructure. This was an example of a symmetrical response. But what happens next is asymmetric actions. More and more allies, such as Sweden, the United Kingdom, Belgium, or France, are taking coordinated steps to maximize the disruption of the Russian 'shadow fleet'. We are doing everything to make those rusted tankers stop generating the profits the Kremlin uses to fund its war machine." "Yesterday, the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe (SACEUR) stated plainly: 'Whenever you are able, when you are almost certain that the Russians stand behind an attack, publicly assign them the blame.' Just like Estonia did today. I fully support this and encourage it. Share all intelligence information with NATO and SHAPE structures. Russia continues its reckless campaign of hostile actions against NATO, trying to weaken our resolve and force us to stop supporting Kyiv. But it is failing. Our message to Moscow is clear: in response to any actions in the gray zone, we will do even more for Ukraine, not less. Because ultimately their only goal is to divide us so we lose focus and start arguing among ourselves." NATO is responding. NATO is providing Ukraine with a lot of ammunition. And Ukraine sends it further, to where it needs to land with a bang. NATO makes it harder for the shadow fleet to operate. It combats Russian spy networks; since the outbreak of the full-scale war in Ukraine in February 2022, NATO member states have expelled around 750 Russian diplomats: Bulgaria 83, Germany 80, Romania 52, Poland 45, France 40. How many "one-time saboteurs" are recruited in Russia for pennies remains a sweet mystery. But there, strangely enough, many different failures occur: trains derail, various things catch fire, blackouts appear, etc. Much of this is done by Ukrainians, but is it all? Who knows, who knows... Today, such saboteurs are rented online for pennies, massively, like cheap drones. They do it, and can we? And how do you know that there are no other intrigues? For example, discreet info in Kremlin circles that one is conspiring against another. Therefore, NATO has tools and can respond, which it is doing. Mainly in the field of cyberattacks that Russia is feeling. As for the Tu-95MS itself - if three engines go out at once, assuming it is true, in most cases it is due to fuel issues, either a break in fuel supply to the engines or fuel contamination, blocked filters, etc. Ukraine has seriously damaged the refineries producing aviation fuel. Often this production has been taken over by other refineries when technically possible. You can easily guess the quality of this fuel. So there could have been "not enough kerosene in the kerosene." Another issue is that the intensive use, these long hours of flights from Ukraine or Olenia to Engels, suspending missiles, and flying to launch over the Caspian Sea (if something goes wrong, the missile falls into the water), and then returning to the home base is about resources, resources, resources... Old bombers and their engines are wearing out at an accelerated pace. How do you think maintenance, spare parts, and technical servicing levels are? Well, exactly, the Russian bomber fleet is systematically degrading, and this can only be pleasing. Because we don't need those bombers for anything. In the picture, a "noisy cricket," the Tu-95MS, code-named "Bear" by NATO. Phot. Runet Dear friends, if you like it, and if I should dedicate my time to it, if you want to read something, I will ask for a coffee, it’s only 10 or 20 PLN. Best regards to everyone and a big thank you to those who buy coffees. (translated)
