Nikos Appelaios II argued that the ratification of the Turkey-Libya memorandum by the eastern Libya parliament, following its ratification by the western Libya parliament in 2019, would provoke diplomatic reactions and strengthen Turkish activity in the eastern Mediterranean. He estimated that energy and bilateral relations would be affected, without changing Greece's legal position. He noted that Greece, Egypt, Cyprus, Israel, and the EU were expected to reiterate that the memorandum is null and produces no legal effects against third countries, as, in his view, it disregards the rights of Greek islands, especially Crete, based on UNCLOS. He added that verbal notes and coordinated European and international positions would be significant. Appelaios called on Athens to intensify pressure on Libya for the delimitation of maritime zones or to finalize the Greece-Egypt agreement of 2020, which, he noted, overlaps with Turkish-Libyan claims. He estimated that Turkey could interpret the ratification as a "green light" for further seismic surveys, geophysical studies, or drilling in the contested areas, as well as for increased naval presence and pressure to accept its claims. According to him, such moves would increase the risk of incidents. He characterized the ratification as a blow to the Greece-Cyprus-Israel axis and said it would complicate Greek research south of Crete. He mentioned that Libya had already reacted to the surveys since August, with a verbal note and a threat to freeze talks. He also estimated that Turkey would seek to exploit the now united Libyan position as leverage for multilateral negotiations. He predicted further rapprochement between Haftar and Turkey at economic, political, and possibly military levels, following the lifting of the 2020 boycott. According to him, this could alter the balance in eastern Libya and have serious implications for cooperation with Greece and Egypt. He clarified that the ratification would not resolve Libya's internal divisions nor would it automatically confer international legitimacy on the memorandum against third parties, but would politically strengthen Turkey and complicate Greek diplomacy. He added that Greece's legal position remained strong and that any potential escalation would depend on Turkish actions and the Greek response. Finally, he criticized the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, stating that it had not acted in a timely manner, and mentioned that if he were prime minister, he would have already requested the resignation of George Gerapetritis. #Λιβύη #ΕλληνικήΔιπλωματία #ΑνατολικήΜεσόγειος (translated)


