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Unfortunately, the president succumbed to Donald Tusk's government and SIGNED the bill on extraordinary profits of fuel companies. I voted against this bill and was counting on a veto. Why? Because this bill, in addition to the tax (which will still be paid by consumers) and filling the government's coffers, does not eliminate the real causes of this high prices. The true cause of these high prices is, firstly, the EU climate policy and the associated taxes, which Morawiecki agreed to, and which were intensified and continued by Donald Tusk. Secondly, the obstinacy of the Polish government, which in view of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is neither looking for nor even trying to find alternative suppliers. These are the real causes of today's expensive fuel, which neither the Polish government nor - as it seems - the Presidential Palace wants to solve. Today, the president removed his image responsibility for expensive fuel, bowed to the government, but did not solve the real causes of the problem. Prices will temporarily drop a bit, but we will still have expensive fuel and another tax to pay. Because if we were to consider today the signing of the bill by Karol Nawrocki as justified, we would have to admit that Donald Tusk's solution was good. It was not. (translated)

After midnight, a special program with Michal Sírový @sssirda, a person who professionally bets on election results around the world😉. About how one gets into political betting, how a bettor from the Czech Republic can successfully bet on election results in Bolivia or the USA, and how betting companies react to successful bets. Who is more accurate in predicting election results, bookmakers or agencies studying public opinion? Or are they interconnected, influencing each other? Do political bettors use AI? Does AI improve the prediction of election results or just speed it up? And finally, Michal gave us basic advice for beginner bettors on election results. (translated)

A very nice issue of Reflex has just come out today. I would be glad if you would give it a chance. Here is my editorial on it: HOW SHOULD WE REMEMBER VÁCLAV HAVEL? I often say that I am "as old as the revolution," by which I obviously mean the Velvet one. And this alone brings a whole set of advantages. Your age always reflects the anniversary of the fall of the communist regime in Czechoslovakia, so you remember it well. I am not burdened by the sins of the past, having to decide whether to collaborate with the regime or not. Likewise, I do not have to blame myself for missing the harsh onset of capitalism and coupon privatization. I had to learn to speak first. And to walk. Those of us born in the early '90s sometimes tend to refer to ourselves as "Havel's children." But how can I identify with a person I didn't properly experience in adulthood, yet who so fundamentally shaped the state I grew up in? And how should I, as well as our entire nation, actually remember Havel? I cannot remember Havel like many other older journalists do. I leave it to my more experienced colleagues. I have only one small personal memory of him. I was about eight years old, and we were on a school excursion in Prague. My classmate and I were lagging at the end of our class line. There was a long queue at Wenceslas Square, and we walked along it. We got a bit distracted and created a gap. And into that gap stepped a crowd of people, in the middle of which walked Václav Havel. We both started staring at him and quickly exclaimed, "Good day, Mr. President," and he replied to us with his typical stammering 'r': "Hello, boys," and then disappeared into a bookstore to sign his books. The queue was standing there for him. It was the year he was dealing with health complications, delivered the famous Rudolfín speech, and signed the absolutely fundamental Czech-German declaration. But I only remember the "hello, boys." And that’s all. When he died in 2011, I was starting in the media, so I was only responsible for some minor media outputs around the funeral. Otherwise, I perceived him as the person whose picture hung next to the blackboard throughout my school life. On television, he appears either as a "gumshoe" in a satirical sketch or giving some speech that is too complicated for my child self to listen to. My opinions of him have therefore formed mostly indirectly, like for most people in our country. Through plays and compulsory reading in school, recordings of speeches, and the exceptional film Citizen Havel, where he allowed us to peer candidly into his private life. I never succumbed to the need to idolize him; I was most fascinated by the fact that despite such a rich life, he was essentially a "normal guy" who enjoyed life and who, even in the presidential office, could fulfill his dreams. A smoke with the Rolling Stones, meditation with the Dalai Lama, a beer with Clinton. None of that made him a better politician. Personally, it made him a human to me. The point of Havel's legacy and its breadth is, in my opinion, that everyone can remember him in their own way. Some remember him as the best person in history, others as a brilliant politician who is missed by the Czech Republic. Others see him as a naive believer in truth who preferred grand gestures over political pragmatism. Some as a womanizer, others as a great world author of absurd drama. Historians and philosophers still debate his legacy to this day. So vehemently that due to one "ezonomist" and pseudophilosopher on an electric unicycle, his name was removed from the library's title. But I would like to highlight one thing about him that seems increasingly rare in today's world. He managed to grow old without becoming bitter. He did not turn into a grump shouting at the clouds. He did not allow himself to be dominated by eternal contrarianism and being against all mainstream opinions at any cost. At the same time, he wasn't afraid to confront the mainstream until the end. I would wish for all of us to grow old like Havel. It’s a pity he was given only 75 years. I would have liked to listen to him even at ninety, which he would have celebrated this year. (translated)

The article discusses Canada's complex situation as it seeks to tighten military and technological cooperation with the EU in the face of Donald Trump's unpredictable policies, emphasizing the need for caution in the context of American reactions and long-standing U.S. interests. (translated)

Sir Ciecióra, The President did not veto either the EU SAFE instrument or the EU Council's decision to provide financing to Poland, so please do not manipulate. He vetoed the Polish act on the Financial Instrument for Increasing Security SAFE – that is, the act that creates a national mechanism for managing these funds at BGK and the rules for their use, control, and audit. This is really not the same as your: "Tusk bypassed the veto and took out a loan" 🤷‍♂️ If you want to raise a constitutional or financial allegation, you should first precisely clarify which act was vetoed and what legal consequences this veto caused. And to do that, you first need to read the law that the President actually vetoed with understanding and check what mechanisms it introduced. Only then can one build a political narrative on it. And now the second part of your entry. You are comparing two completely different legal procedures and from this difference, you are making hypocrisy; I am shocked by your logic in this regard. SAFE is a EU law instrument. Financial assistance for Poland was made available by a decision of the EU Council based on the SAFE regulation, and the financing conditions are then specified in a loan agreement with the Commission. On the other hand, lowering Polish taxes requires a change in Polish law. And the law – according to the Constitution – after being passed by parliament goes to the President 🤷‍♂️ It is not - sometimes you can bypass the President, and other times you need to ask for his consent. These are simply two different legal regimes and two different modes of state action. Turning the constitutional difference of competences into proof of the greatest hypocrisy in history looks impressive for the audience, but legally, not much comes of it 🤷‍♂️ (translated)

If Żurek doesn't turn this iron letter around, he's finished. He had one more chance, but he squandered that too: he could have said, "the institution of the iron letter is precisely to effectively interrogate a person who is hiding from justice. We use it because we want to thoroughly clarify the entire mechanism of the crime." He didn't do that. Out of stupidity, obstinacy, or by chance. The reason is not really important. What matters is the effect. And that effect is that sought after by the best Polish hunters around the world, a faithful executor of the orders of the leader of the organized crime group, responsible for a multitude of crimes, a gangster more dangerous than the management of Pruszków, whom Silni Razem would like to sentence to life, preferably in a cell one meter by one meter, without light and bed, will come smiling, with a live transmission in the Republic, and Żurkom and the whole crazed crew will be in a panic. (translated)

Memory of the year 2023, Slovenia: It was the morning of August 4th and I bought a left-wing weekly @SpletnaMladina for the train. It talked about how even the global North is starting to feel the devastating consequences of the climate crisis. Later that day, Slovenia was paralyzed by a 500-year flood, among other things due to the overheated Adriatic. (translated)

Please, Mr. Babiš graced us with the information that he is sufficiently wealthy and therefore does not need to steal. Coincidentally, this is the same narrative that retirees used to share among themselves in chain messages at a time when even Andrej Babiš did not yet know that he wanted to enter politics. And I think that the whole idea is fundamentally nonsense. It is information that is objectively correct, but it does not describe the problem as it really is. Andrej Babiš really does not need more money. Sure, we have the scandals around subsidies and the use of Agrofert, which his critics have long attacked as privileging a large holding at the expense of smaller players. But all of this is just a facade. What Andrej Babiš truly desires is power. To prove not only to himself but also to his surroundings what can be bent, and what cannot be bent; what can be broken. Ideally, without consequences. Andrej Burešuje simply because he can. Do you remember the episode of The Simpsons in which Mr. Burns blocks the sun over Springfield and then also steals a lollipop from Maggie? Not because he needed the lollipop. Because real power does not begin at the moment when you can take what you need. It begins at the moment when you can take even what you do not need at all, just to show everyone that no one can stop you. And this is exactly what this argument of "I am rich, I do not need to steal" is not about at all. (translated)

The Russian air force dropped a quarter-ton bomb on a school building in the Ukrainian city of Sumy. At the time, students from the first to the fourth grade were in the school. According to authorities, no one was injured as teachers took the children to shelters in time. However, elsewhere in the city, the airstrike killed two people and injured six others. (translated)

Jarosław Kaczyński obawia się utraty wpływów na rzecz Karola Nawrockiego oraz Rozwoju Plus, co skłoniło go do podjęcia działań mających na celu zacieśnienie współpracy z Pałacem Prezydenckim, związanym z fundacją Centrum Strategii Rozwojowych. #PolskaPolityka #JarosławKaczyński #RozwójPlus

Dziś rząd przyjął ostateczną wersję budżetu na rok 2027. W skrócie - czeka nas potężne zderzenie z górą lodową deficytu. 🚢🧊📈 Przypomnijmy najważniejsze fakty⤵️ 🟥 Deficyt sektora finansów publicznych: Prognozowany na poziomie 7,1% PKB (trzeci rok z rzędu na wysokim poziomie, przekraczający kryteria z Maastricht). 🟥 Obsługa długu publicznego: koszt szacowany na 107 mld zł rocznie. 🟥 Rentowność obligacji: przewidywany wzrost rentowności polskich 10-letnich obligacji skarbowych powyżej 6%. 🟥 Nierealne założenia makroekonomiczne: podważenie prognoz dotyczących inflacji (ze względu na kryzys paliwowy i czynniki geopolityczne), wzrostu gospodarczego oraz dynamiki inwestycji. 🟥 Problemy z dochodami podatkowymi: 🔻Załamanie wpływów z podatku VAT (szacowana możliwa do uszczelnienia luka na 30–40 mld zł). 🔻Luka w podatku akcyzowym szacowana na ponad 10 mld zł. 🔻Brak skutecznego opodatkowania zagranicznych korporacji (CIT). 🟥 Skupmy się się na skutkach tej ruiny Tuska dla portfeli Polaków. 🟥 Pierwszym z nich było obniżenie ratingu przez agencję Moody’s. To co udało się Domańskiemu w sierpniu, kiedy uniknął cięcia ratingu przez agencję Fitch dzięki ogłoszeniu podwyższenia drugiego progu podatkowego połączonego z podwyżkami m. in. CIT i zmianami w ryczałcie, Moody’s uznało za działania dalece niewystarczające, szczególnie w obliczu sceptycyzmu Pałacu Prezydenckiego wobec propozycji rządowych. 🟥 Negatywne konsekwencje rynkowe nie ujawnią się w ciągu miesiąca czy kwartału, lecz w perspektywie 12-18 miesięcy (czyli po wyborach). To jawna gra ministra finansów mająca na celu przedkładanie celów politycznych nad stabilność długoterminową. 🟥 W roku 2027 dług krajowy przekroczy 55% PKB, co w kontekście budżetu na rok 2029 będzie oznaczało szereg bolesnych dostosowań fiskalnych: 🔻zakaz uchwalania budżetu z deficytem, na kolejny rok, 🔻zamrożenie płac w budżetówce, 🔻ograniczenie waloryzacji emerytur i rent, 🔻ograniczenia dla samorządów, 🔻zakaz udzielania nowych poręczeń i gwarancji przez Skarb Państwa. 🟥 Wszystko to uzupełniają rosnące obawy inflacyjne i prognozy podwyżek stóp procentowych przez NBP. Bez wyraźnej korekty cen na stacjach paliw należy spodziewać się istotnego wzrostu inflacji - wrześniowa przebije 4% r/r. W kolejnych miesiącach inflacja może przekroczyć nawet 5% r/r a w całym 2027 będzie wyższa niż 3,5%. 🟥 Ekonomiści Pekao SA spodziewają się w najbliższych kwartałach nawet 3 podwyżek stóp - łącznie o 75 punktów bazowych. Z kolei ekonomiści banku ING wskazują, że kontrakty FRA 12x15 (przewidujące wysokość stóp za 12 miesięcy) wynoszą obecnie niemal 5,20%, co oznacza, iż niewiele dzieli go od wycenienia zacieśniania monetarnego rzędu 150 pb w rok. 🟥 W jednym minister Domański ma rację. Cytując jego słowa „Polska nie ma możliwości zwiększania wydatków publicznych przed przyszłorocznymi wyborami, a polityka fiskalna jest wyzwaniem dla rządu”. To zawoalowana parafraza „pieniędzy nie ma i nie będzie”. A po nich? Choćby potop… #budżet2027 #deficyt #finansepubliczne

Dnes začíná schůze o nedůvěře vládě Andreje Babiše. Výsledek si nebudu nalhávat. Opozice má 92 poslanců a k pádu kabinetu potřebuje 101 hlasů. Jeden na chvíli pozitivně zmatenej Ševčík kritizující šílený schodek rozpočtu, nebo bejvalej šéf Cermatu poslanec Krejčí, u kterého se ještě občas záchvěvy etiky a jakési integrity projeví, to asi nezlomí. Fleky pro SPD a směšné a zároveň nebezpecné Klausovy Motorky jsou příliš opojné a pro řadu “nové politické šlechty” je to vrchol jejich ekonomické kariéry. Smysl schůze je ale jasný. Vláda musí před lidmi, voliči i před svými poslanci obhájit rozpočet se schodkem 386 miliard korun, přestože ekonomika roste. Musí vysvětlit, proč její vlastní ministryně financí už připouští nové daně, proč je zde obrovskypropad ve financování vzdělávání a školství, zatímco výdaje na agrobarony rostou. A premiér musí věrohodně doložit, že jeho podnikatelské zájmy neovlivňují rozhodování státu.🙈 Každý vládní poslanec dnes dostane možnost říct, jestli za tím vším furt stojí. Já ne. Proto budu hlasovat pro nedůvěru. 🏴‍☠️ #politika #vláda #nedůvěra

Protože rozumím řeči ptáků, už nějakou dobu ze stromu za oknem slyším: „No hlavně že si nás ten magor celou zimu natáčel u jídla. Ale že by nám teď něco nasypal, to ho nenapadne…“ Tak jo. Oživím kameru. 📹🐦 A zítra začínáme! 😄 https://t.co/n78aoInFil #ptáci #příroda #kamery