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Roni Arvonen reminded that, in his opinion, the government had not done anything for the YEL system. He wrote that the changes would not come into effect until the beginning of 2028 and that there were still significant deficiencies. According to Arvonen, the greatest uncertainty concerned the passage of the entire reform, and he estimated that the social democratic-led government would likely reject it. #YEL #uudistus #poliikka (translated)

Otto Meri criticized the cuts to the prosecution service and compared them to the tax-free dividends of trade unions, the tens of millions granted in corporate support to publicly traded companies, and the hundreds of millions in development aid. According to Meri, the handling of a typical criminal case could already take up to five years, and the cuts would further prolong legal proceedings. He assessed that this would particularly increase the uncertainty of crime victims. Meri considered the realization of criminal responsibility to be one of the pillars of the rule of law and stated that the judiciary should be strengthened rather than weakened. He viewed the cuts as a wrong direction. #oikeusvaltio #rikosoikeus #yritystuet (translated)

Henri Vanhanen wrote that the Ilta-Sanomat news about Jaakko Laakso's communication with the Turkish foreign minister reminded him of his trip to Ankara with Mika Aaltola in February 2023. Vanhanen said they had discussed at that time the obstacles and opportunities regarding Finland's NATO membership ratification. Vanhanen stated that based on their assessments from the discussions, Turkey was clearly more positive towards Finland's membership than Sweden's, and that a separate pathway could be opened for Finland. They had made their assessment public and raised the possibility that Finland could advance if necessary before Sweden. According to Vanhanen, the assessment turned out to be correct. He noted that at that time they were not aware that Laakso had already met with the Turkish foreign minister the previous spring and expressed his opposition to Finland's NATO membership. Vanhanen wrote that Laakso's actions raised serious questions: in his view, opposing NATO membership was the right of every Finn, but conveying anti-membership views directly to the Turkish foreign minister was a different matter. Vanhanen believed that the events related to Finland's NATO membership deserved clarification, especially when they raised difficult questions about Finnish actions. https://t.co/XGptAqzYmF #Suomi #Nato #Turkki (translated)

The Daily Bureaucrat wrote that the survey might reflect uncertainty about the National Coalition Party's relationship with the Social Democrats. According to him, the National Coalition Party had not openly ruled out a blue-red government despite his recommendation, which is why voters committed to a right-wing agenda shifted to support the Finns Party. https://t.co/llPsM0389y #politiikka #Suomi #vaalit (translated)

Henri Vanhanen wrote that he wanted to correct the interpretations of an article by Helsingin Sanomat that dealt with nuclear weapons and said he remained uncertain about what the article ultimately claimed regarding Finland's security. According to him, Finland did not join the NATO nuclear deterrent with little discussion or unnoticed, but rather joined an alliance whose deterrence and defense had been based on nuclear weapons for decades. He described the strategic nuclear forces of the United States as a key basis for NATO's nuclear deterrent. Vanhanen considered that the bombing of Nagasaki was not an example of the current type of nuclear deterrent because Japan did not have a nuclear weapon nor the ability to respond to a U.S. strike. In his view, Nagasaki demonstrated the destructiveness of nuclear weapons and the human risks of their use, whereas the current deterrent was based on the assumption that an attacker had to consider the possibility of retaliation and uncontrolled escalation. Vanhanen assessed that Trump had increased uncertainty regarding the United States' commitment to the conventional defense of Europe and believed Europe would have to bear more responsibility for it. However, he distinguished this from the claim that the U.S. nuclear deterrent had weakened. According to him, the U.S. ability to use nuclear weapons had not diminished, NATO was not dismantling its nuclear plans or arrangements, systems were being modernized, and F-35 aircraft were being introduced into NATO's nuclear missions. Vanhanen stated that the NATO Nuclear Planning Group had confirmed in June that strategic nuclear forces, particularly U.S. forces, remained the ultimate guarantee of the allies' security and had decided to continue strengthening and modernizing the nuclear deterrent. Vanhanen considered it a central uncertainty whether Moscow would believe that the U.S. president would be willing to use nuclear weapons to defend an ally in an extreme situation. He reminded that the question of the U.S. willingness to endanger its own cities for the sake of Europe had been a concern throughout the history of the extended nuclear deterrent and there had been no complete certainty during the Cold War or at the present time. According to him, Finland's option was not a nuclear deterrent or a nuclear-free security environment, as Russia would have its nuclear weapons in any case. Vanhanen wrote that the crucial issue for the deterrent was that the Russian leadership could not be certain that the United States would defend Finland. https://t.co/3C8aAkuMwj #ydinaseet #Nato #Suomi (translated)

Update to the forecast made on July 15, 2026: The correction in the stock market is coming to an end, and next up is a strong 6-month uptrend? The forecast drawn just over 2.5 months ago regarding market movements is almost spot on if copied to the S&P 500 equal weight index (see picture). It has the same stocks as the S&P 500 but with different weights. The equal weight index has fallen by 7.2% from the August peaks to yesterday's lows. Looking at the equal weight index, we can state that we saw: 1) a rise to new highs in July-August with a strong earnings season 2) a strong decline in September due to increased uncertainty (interest rates, oil/Iran, midterms, artificial intelligence) If the third wave of the forecast materializes, it would mean that the market bottoms out before the U.S. midterms and rises significantly over the next 6 months. #Osakkeet #Sijoittaminen #Markkinat (translated)

The press conference today clarified the suspicions related to parliamentarians' homes. According to Speaker Halla-aho, there is a significant number of cases. It is suspected that residences have been entered in the absence of the representatives. No signs of forced entry have been found, and nothing has been stolen, but traces have been left in the homes. The suspicions involve members of different parties, and the first case may go back as far as a year. There is currently no confirmed information about the perpetrator or motive. The background may involve criminal activity, harassment or stalking targeted at individual politicians, domestic extremist groups, or the actions of a foreign state. Not all reported cases may necessarily be related to each other. Now, it is the police's task to distinguish real intrusions from other observations and investigate possible connections between them. The possibility of a state actor must still be taken seriously. An especially interesting detail is the marks left in the homes. If the intention were solely to obtain information secretly, a successful intrusion would fundamentally be attempted to be concealed. If, instead, traces are deliberately left behind, being noticed may itself be part of the operation. In that case, intelligence is combined with psychological influence. Such methods are known in the history of Russian security services. There have been intrusions into the homes of diplomats, officials, and other individuals deemed interesting, with deliberate traces left behind. This does not prove anything about the perpetrators of these cases. It indicates why the possibility of a foreign state’s action must be thoroughly investigated. If it ultimately turns out to be state influence, the selection of targets would in itself be significant. Parliamentarians decide on Finland's defense policy, NATO cooperation, support for Ukraine, relations with Russia, and numerous other decisions in which foreign states may have strong interests. Coercion does not have to mean an attempt to change one vote in a single ballot. The aim could also be to gather information, map networks and vulnerabilities, or generate uncertainty about whether the consequences of political decisions extend to an individual's own home and loved ones. That is why Finland now needs a more open discussion about the kind of foreign intelligence, influence, and pressure directed at it. Confidential information should not be disclosed, but Finns should have a realistic understanding of the security environment in which we live and whether its change requires anything from decision-makers, companies, or ordinary people. And above all, keep a cool head. If the purpose of such acts turns out to be to generate fear and uncertainty in Finland, that is precisely the effect that should not be allowed. Serious suspicions will be investigated, efforts will be made to identify the perpetrators, and appropriate action will be taken if necessary. Finland's decisions will continue to be made in Finland, without fear and pressure. #turvallisuus #politiikka #tiedustelu (translated)

Tällä viikolla markkinoilla mietittiin seuraavia asioita: USA:n pitkät korot nousivat yli 5 prosenttiin, Brent-öljy yli 110 dollariin, tekoälykehitys alkoi uhkaamaan ihmiskuntaa ja em. syystä sen kehitystä pitäisi hidastaa. S&P 500 ei laskenut, vaan teki viikkograafeilla ostopaineesta kertovan kynttilän (ks. kuva) ja on nyt vain 2 % kaikkien aikojen huippulukemista. Kun huonotkaan uutiset eivät laske kursseja, todennäköisyys kurssinousulle alkaa kasvamaan. USA:n kuuden viikon päästä olevat välivaalit voivat vielä aiheuttaa jonkunlaista epävarmuutta ja turbulenssia muiden edellä listattujen syiden lisäksi, mutta seuraavan 6 kuukauden aikahorisontilla indekseillä ei ole kuin yksi pääsuunta: ylöspäin 📈 #talous #markkinat #osakkeet

Suomen Pankin syyskuun väliennusteessa todetaan, että Suomen talous on vahvistunut alkuvuonna ennakoitua enemmän erityisesti viennin ja investointien myötä, vaikka Lähi-idän konfliktista johtuva energian hintojen nousu tuo ennusteeseen epävarmuutta. #Talous #SuomenPankki #Investoinnit

Nähdäkseni suurin syy pakolaisvyörylle oli Venäjän tuki Syyrian diktaattorille. EU ei reagoinut ajoissa. Pakolaiskriisi kaatui Merkelin niskaan. Venäjän hybridisota toimi. Mitä 🇫🇮poliittinen eliitti teki 2008-2015. "Katsoi sivusta "kun Putin epävakautti Eurooppaa ja Lähi-itää. #pakolaiskriisi #Venäjä #EU

Perinteisillä puolueilla, jotka ovat hylänneet epävarmassa asemassa olevien ihmisten materiaalisten olosuhteiden aidon parantamisen ja tulevaisuuden tarjoamisen, on peiliin katsomisen paikka. Kun tarjolla on vain hallinnointia ja talouskuria, kanavoi äärioikeisto muutoshalun. 3/3 #politiikka #muutos #yhteiskunta #FI