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Mika Aaltola

50 posts
Profile compiled from news and social media.

Mika Aaltola

Finnish political scientist (born 1969)
@MikaAaltola · 150,448 Followers
@maaltola

Trump’s new Section 301 tariffs hit the EU hard: 10% additional duties on EU imports over alleged forced labor enforcement gaps just as the EU-US trade deal (tariff cuts, quotas on ag/tech) was advancing toward final votes. Undermines the 2025 framework? #Tariffs #EUSTrade #ForcedLabor #EU

(TR) Good. Increasing the likelihood that the war will end in Russia's strategic defeat at the borders of 1991.

(TR) Finally some sense in the national discussion, half a year behind other Nordic countries. As the crisis escalates, it is in France's interest to decentralize its nuclear weapons. This is also in the interest of allies. This statement now increases the overall deterrent in relation to Russia.

(TR) The USA is at all times near the Strait of Hormuz. The targets are Iran's air defense and drone command positions. The choice of the island is not coincidental. It is a base for the Revolutionary Guard located at the world's most important oil channel. Iran is not toothless, but

(TR) This is stirring in Britain, and rightly so: 18-year-old British-Polish student Henry Nowak was stabbed to death in Southampton on December 3, 2025. The police who arrived at the scene put handcuffs on the victim after the perpetrator allegedly claimed to have been the target of a racist attack. Nowak died shortly thereafter.

Russia’s disinformation campaign in Africa must be stopped. Russia continues to be the primary source of disinformation in the region, actively seeking to undermine democratic developments and promote anti-Western sentiment. Europe must pay close attention to what is happening #Russia #Disinformation #Africa #RU #AF #EU

(TR) The European Parliament's international trade committee approved the trade agreement between the EU and the United States today with a clear majority. The agreement is not perfect. Few international compromises are. However, the alternative was not a perfect solution, but ongoing.

(TR) The growth of Finland's defense is an investment in our future. Now that we are raising spending to over 3% of GDP, let's emphasize domestic and European purchases. They strengthen our own industry, create jobs, and build strategic autonomy; we must not become dependent.

(TR) As U.S. conventional support weakens for NATO countries, the focus shifts to strengthening the nuclear umbrella. At the same time, France and Britain are developing their own models regarding strategic deterrence.

(TR) EU agreement on a new effective return system. -European return decision (mutual recognition) -Rapid returns in cases of security risks. -Return centers to third countries -Better voluntary returns, strict rules for disappearances.

”Tensions are already translating into hostile acts against the critical undersea infrastructure underpinning modern societies and the global economy. A newly invigorated role for NATO is welcome, if not a “silver bullet.”” https://t.co/6esis3Z10q #NATO #UnderseaSecurity #GlobalEconomy #Therearenospecificcountrycodesmentionedinthetweet.

China’s new outbound investment rules take force July 1. Beijing screens its own capital, polices its own tech, and punishes anyone who de-risks. China’s web of dependencies just became geoeconomic leverage. For Europe, de-risking is now a trigger, not a shield. #China #Geoeconomics #InvestmentRules #CN #EU

(TR) Russia is lying about the drones. A weak state does not attack, it tries a deterrent. And the fence must be kept, or it is not a fence but an invitation inside. Putin is testing where the fifth article awakens when the weakening USA looks elsewhere?

(TR) The championship favorite Canada thought they were marching to the finals. The Lions disagreed. 4-2. Today the gold game, in front of the host audience. The fifth star is one win away.

The nuclear rung is the wrong place to deter Russia. The conventional one is where it’s won or lost. Once Putin takes a sliver of the eastern flank and dares us to go nuclear, the game is almost over. Deter the first testing moves already happening, or face the worst choices. #NuclearDeterrence #Russia #ConventionalWarfare #RU

(TR) I warned about this. A drone exploded in an apartment building in Galați. On NATO and EU territory. Denial has become a weapon. Whether it's a false flight or not, the pattern repeats and the threshold is moved inch by inch. The deterrent does not know hesitation and the defenders of Russia.

This marks another dangerous escalation in Russia’s hybrid warfare against NATO. Repeated airspace violations are testing Article 5 thresholds. Supporting Ukraine’s deep strikes and bolstering Romania’s (and the Alliance’s) air defense is not optional, it’s urgent. #Russia #NATO #Ukraine #RU #NATO #UA #RO

(TR) The world is changing and the Finns know how to read the change. Trust in Trump has decreased due to the chaos.

(TR) "The ability to spoof GPS signals has been significantly increased in the Kaliningrad region. Just last year, the Russians had three jamming transmitters, now there are 36."

(TR) Norway joins France's advanced deterrence initiative and signed a mutual defense agreement. France's nuclear deterrent is practically a common project of the Nordic countries, except for Finland. Europe is building its own security. NATO's supplementary deterrent is strengthened.

(TR) One consequence of the US withdrawal will be bilateral and minilateral security guarantees and arrangements. Their fabric addresses the experienced security gap and mitigates the threat escalation.

A military attack on a foreign embassy is considered an act of aggression or an armed attack under international law, equivalent to striking state’s sovereign territory. #InternationalLaw #DiplomaticProtection #Sovereignty #Nospecificcountrycodesarementionedinthetweet.

(TR) I see. This trend, where Russia's direct and active but controversial military actions are emphasized, is significant and cannot be underestimated. It requires constant vigilance. It won't go away by closing one's eyes, but rather it becomes more pronounced.

(TR) "Russia is using a signal sent from Kaliningrad that jamming the GPS navigation of drones and directs them westward. The jamming signal drones can drop or end up in the airspace of Finland or the Baltics."

(TR) Without significant European pressure on Russia, the war will not end but will spread dangerously. Europe needs to increase its economic resources tenfold. Support for its own and Ukraine's deterrence must be raised to a level that makes Putin think.

(TR) I have warned about the same thing. The situation is clear here. Finland is certainly well prepared. And has communicated this clearly to Russia. Russia's hybrid actions are becoming more direct.

(TR) rational and direct language. In the pressure of Russia's increasingly direct actions, it is not advisable to remain passive. It is good to emphasize unity and determination. Ukraine's right to self-defense and the continuation of support.

(TR) As the coordinator of the Parliamentary Democracy Shield (EPP), after dozens of hearings, I will say directly: the Moscow Patriarchate is a hybrid tool of the Kremlin. In Moldova, it consecrated electoral influence. Supo also confirmed this in Finland in November. This is not a church issue. It is

RT @Mylovanov: Lithuania's foreign minister Budrys accused Russia of "deliberately" redirecting Ukrainian drones into Baltic airspace using… #Lithuania #Russia #UkrainianDrones #LT #RU #UA

Rutte calling Trump’s planned US cuts to NATO’s crisis response forces 'structured' and 'business as usual' is managerial delusion. Neither endless European dependence nor erratic US withdrawal is sustainable. Both sides own this mess. #NATO #USForeignPolicy #EuropeanSecurity #US #NL

RT @ICDS_Tallinn: US abandonment risk means NATO must be able to deter and, if needed, fight Russia without US support. With Washington’s c… #NATO #Russia #USSupport #US #RU

RT @a_anusauskas: A drone may have circled over Russian-Belarusian nuclear exercises before entering Lithuanian airspace. Its actual flight… #drones #Lithuania #nuclearexercises #RU #BY #LT

(TR) Russia's spoofing of Ukrainian drones in NATO territory is a classic gray area. Talking about a deliberate attack against a NATO country is politically explosive, so people prefer to talk about "accidents" or "deceptions." The escalation threshold is quietly lowering. This is

RT @TheEconomist: China maintains that it is neutral in the conflict, but by supplying huge volumes of “dual-use” components and materials,… #China #DualUse #Conflict #CN

(TR) Europe shouldn't rush into suicide out of the fear of death. China is not the solution to Trump anxiety, but a country that, through geo-economic means, is undermining Europe’s industrial foundation and is trying to economically bind the continent to itself. Fortunately, this has been recognized. Actions are on the way.

(TR) Russia's 163 m, 89 MW warship has anchored itself near the coast of Germany for several days – Media: Protecting shady activities…

RT @carlbildt: For 🇮🇱 regime change in 🇮🇷 was evidently to try to return one of the most crazy figures of the past few decades to power. It… #Israel #Iran #RegimeChange #IL #IR

RT @carlbildt: There is a government crisis in 🇱🇻 at the same time as 🇷🇺 steps up false accusations against the country. No reason for undu… #LatviaCrisis #RussiaAccusations #GovernmentInstability #LV #RU

(TR) Apparently, Russia is planning to open a new front from the direction of Belarus. Europe has shown a willingness to negotiate. Russia, however, tends to escalate its aggression and double its stakes. Filthy rich or dirt poor.

RT @andrewmichta: Looks like Russia is setting up a false flag operation in the Northeast Corridor. Most likely one of the Baltic states. #Russia #FalseFlag #BalticStates #RU #LV #LT #EE

RT @EP_President: Europe stands united against threats on its borders. Our full solidarity goes to all people in Lithuania, Latvia, Estoni… #EuropeUnited #Solidarity #BalticStates #LT #LV #EE

”The EU has demonstrated once again that we are a rather reliable trading partner that honors its commitments,” EU trade chief Maroš Šefčovič” https://t.co/Otz3TcgyAA #EUtrade #MarošŠefčovič #TradeRelations #EU #SK

(TR) Aaltola does not rule out that Russia is actively trying to direct Ukrainian drones to the Baltics and Finland. He believes that it is in Russia's interest to create unrest and confusion in the Baltic Sea area.

(TR) Russia knows we know that it is lying. So why does it then indirectly threaten especially Latvia? Because for Russia, the truth is never the audience. It tries to make all truths equally suspicious. "The audience" is tripartite: domestic Russia, the Global South, and

”The incident occurred under the conditions of heavy electronic warfare, including GPS spoofing and jamming, by Russia," the Estonian military added.” https://t.co/fpREbg95Ho #ElectronicWarfare #GPSSpoofing #Russia #RU #EE

(TR) This is now Russian propaganda that is in the air along with the drones. The aim is to confuse and destabilize. Drones in the Baltic fit the Russian narrative.

(TR) In Võrtsjärv, Estonia, the NATO surveillance drone shot down was part of a large operation of Ukraine at least in the regions of St. Petersburg and Pskov...

(TR) Taiwan is not just an island. It is the key. The first island chain blocks the Chinese coastal waters. Taiwan is the key to the chain. Its loss would open the Pacific to China and collapse the regional defense architecture. Xi knows this. It is not about China's "reunification."

(TR) The fifth year of Russia's three-day war to seize Ukraine is proving to be the most difficult. Ukraine's strikes on Moscow, St. Petersburg, and thousands of kilometers deep into Russia are putting Putin in a bind.

For two years we told Ukraine: hold the line. Now that it held, we tell Russia ”take it”. The front did not break. We are starting to. #Ukraine #Russia #HoldTheLine #UA #RU