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Mika Aaltola

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Mika Aaltola

Finnish political scientist (born 1969)
@MikaAaltola · 150,448 Followers
@maaltola
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NATO consults. The EU can punish. Sanction, seize, regulate, fund, no one else on this continent has those tools. Europe's own Article 4 turns attribution into consequence within days, not months. Drones and sabotage are not deterred by communiqués. They are deterred by cost. #NATO #EUpolicy #Sanctions #Thetweetdoesnotspecificallymentionanycountries #sotherearenorelevantcountrycodestoreturn.

I followed today's State of the Union address from the chamber. The fourth since Russia's invasion. Set them side by side and the arc is clear. When it started, Europe spoke of solidarity. The crisis was on our skin: energy, sanctions, emergency aid. In 2023 the tone shifted to https://t.co/DUh1zRX4nI #StateOfTheUnion #RussiaUkraine #Solidarity #RU #EU

I followed a speech today in the chamber about the state of the union. The fourth since the Russian invasion. The arc is clear when they are placed side by side. In 2022, Europe spoke of solidarity. The crisis was close at hand: energy, sanctions, emergency aid. Then the tone changed to the economy. (translated)

EU diplomats say that some capitals are assessing the risk of a Trump counterattack if Canada-EU relations deepen. The Baltic countries are particularly cautious, as NATO security guarantees weigh in. Leaders privately support Ottawa, but publicly there is silence. Trump is not to be provoked. (translated)

Leyen is expected to present a European Security Council today: EU, Ukraine, Britain, Norway, and Canada at the same table, and member states with a right similar to Article 4 of NATO to call others together in a crisis. (translated)

”Parts of the Netherlands, including Amsterdam, have been hit by major rail disruption after suspected sabotage to the tracks, the country's railway infrastructure operator has said” https://t.co/ct9MQc8GzY #Netherlands #Amsterdam #RailDisruption #NL

The costs of living will rise. That's clear. A poorly thought-out and aimless war is its immediate cause. (translated)

This is corrupt dynastic diplomacy. The state is not a ministry. It is a family. A wedding is not private when the groom is the president's eldest son. Umar Kremlev, a Putin ally decorated with Russia's Order of Friendship weeks earlier, did not buy a "weekend with friends." He #Corruption #DynastyPolitics #Putin #RU

The EU can freeze 3,000 Russian names then risk unfreezing them all because Slovakia wants two oligarchs off the list and France suddenly “has a national security issue.” Unanimity isn’t strategy. It’s a hostage note. If the list dies, don’t call it procedure, call it a failure https://t.co/ZMcCEbpisO #EUpolitics #Sanctions #Oligarchs #SK #FR #RU

Ukrainian railways: "completely possible" that the target was a diplomatic train that managed to leave early. Even if it wasn't, the train was a target two kilometers away from NATO. (translated)

For Russia, power politics has always been very personal. The strike targeted potentially many European leaders. Russia is pressuring European leaders on their way to Kyiv. It has an up-to-date and operational #targetlist. (translated)

Russia strikes at the Polish border. But the attack can be named a hybrid attack. That, in turn, is a category that Russia is expected to carry out. (translated)

For Russia, power politics has always been very personal. The strike targeted many European leaders. Russia knew very well who to pressure. It has an updated and operational #targetlist. (translated)

With these "hybrid attacks," Russia is testing, experimenting, and probing NATO's defenses. They are military strikes on NATO territory. But the minister is right that Russian tanks will not cross the NATO border at this stage. (translated)

What all is Russia practicing and preparing. Good that we were aware of this plot and managed to prevent it. (translated)

Norwegian PM Støre: Zelensky's plane nearly hit a drone as it took off from Moldova on the way to the funeral in Oslo. No surprise, everyone knows that the Ukrainian president is on Russia's kill list. More and more of Russia's blacklists are operational and active. (translated)

Realism is finally starting to show in Washington: "The phrasing 'after talks with Putin, the United States called for preparing for the war to last ‘for years’" and "Putin shows no readiness to end it and has already escalated" is interpretive framing." (translated)

One thing. A large wave of refugees was triggered by Russia supporting the bloody actions of the Syrian regime and carrying out a murderous intervention in the country. Since then, Russia has actively put pressure on various borders. Why would pro-Russian sentiment be the solution for border security? (translated)

1. This is a dangerous coupling. Washington is reviewing its Europe force posture: fewer U.S. troops, canceled rotations, Europe told to take the lead. At the same than moment, Russia repeats its old demand to address the “root causes” of the war. #USMilitary #RussiaUkraine #EuropeSecurity #US #EU #RU

The sad part here is especially that the Putin sympathizers won. Russia is hitting hard on Germany and still love is found more for the external enemy. (translated)