There may be something much larger happening in Russia than it appears outwardly. We are used to thinking of mobilization as an event. Putin gives a speech, a decision is announced, and reservists are called to service. The next mobilization may look completely different. Russia may gradually call men to service, decentralizing actions across the country, pressuring people to sign contracts, and sparing politically sensitive cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg. There may never be a single day when we could state that a new mobilization has begun. If this does not produce enough soldiers, the situation could become even bleaker. Russia could even stage an attack on its own soil and blame it on Ukraine or NATO. The goal would not be to convince us, but rather the Russians, that the country is under attack and needs more men for the war. This is also significant for Finland. If Russia manages to mobilize hundreds of thousands of new soldiers, the issue is not just about the front in Ukraine. At the same time, it is worth watching whether Russia begins to build a new strategic reserve and fill its new units in the Leningrad military district near Finland. There is no immediate threat of attack against Finland, but right now decisions can be made that determine Russia's military power at our borders for years to come. (translated)
