One of the most important aspects of the current "special election operation" is the manifestation that the new territories of Russia, meaning the territories of Ukraine occupied by the Russian Federation, show the highest turnout and support for the Russian authorities. This is meant to represent another... (translated)
W tym wątku @Centrum_Rosja będziemy publikowali w najbliższych dniach informacje oraz komentarze o tzw. wyborach w Rosji. I pamiętajmy: to nie tylko wybory do Dumy Państwowej (to bardzo ważne), a w czasie tzw. SWO były już w Rosji (czy też na terenach okupowanych) różne wybory. #WyborwRosji #DumaPaństwowa #SWO
Professor J. Smele died today… Author of, among others, this important book in which he presented his original concept of the civil war in Russia. (translated)
The Russian opposition "Novaya Gazeta Europe" published a small cheat sheet on how the main Russian emigration-opposition forces recommend approaching the upcoming elections (election operation) in Russia. It is evident that no single tactic has been developed, so: for example, some recommend (translated)
Another trial in Russia, now against the politician and social activist Lwow Szlosberg, a politician of "Yabloko" since the 1990s. And again, a characteristic scene in a Russian court, reminiscent of old trials against oppositionists from the Tsarist era. Fragment (translated)
Barbarism. One of my favorite places in Kyiv, eh… Russian armed imperialism burns books even in Russian. (translated)
Even though the current Ukrainian attacks on energy and logistics infrastructure are unprecedented in this war, I still believe that: just as it was, for example, with the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region in 2024, much depends on whether the Kremlin can intimidate and convince its population, (translated)
So: in the Kremlin, concerns prevailed (of the siloviki-FSB?) that the party "Yabloko" might receive many votes with the help of social mobilization (this indicates that the authorities understand that the moods in the country are deteriorating). Secondly, it would activate emigration and the opposition to take action. (translated)
On the other hand, I'm watching the session of the Supreme Court of Russia regarding "Yabloko," and it somewhat resembles the trials from the second half of the 19th century.... Again, the courts are the battleground of fundamental political struggle, and the law is defending it. (translated)
This weekend, or perhaps in recent days, there must have been all-night debates in the Administration of the President of Russia: on one hand, allowing "Yabloko" to participate in the upcoming elections, while imposing targeted-individual repressions against its activists and candidates, could bring the Kremlin... (translated)
For several years, Poland has been seen as an increasingly serious rival. Above all, the greatest concern for the Russians is our potential, including economic, with good and stable relations with the USA, NATO, and the EU. A strong Poland in the West has already been a nightmare for the Russian elite since the days of the Tsar. (translated)
I agree. I just think that if the Kremlin targets western Ukraine, especially those near the border with Poland, there is a political calculation happening there to classify the malfunction/error/WRE as a controlled incident of a provocative or escalating nature. Especially at this stage of the war. (translated)
Especially in recent weeks (and days), in the Russian political debate, the issue of raising stakes or escalating the conflict, including through its controlled expansion, is evident. Hence, the calculated risk of a missile "falling" into NATO territory is possible. (translated)
Even if it was a malfunction/error, the targets in Ukraine near the border with Poland indicate that the Kremlin has calculated the risk of malfunction/error, which may stem from recent narratives in Russia about raising the stakes in the war against Ukraine. Ergo: this could be an escalation incident. (translated)
Exactly like that: in the narrative of the state elites of Russia, there is a dominant thesis, enthusiastically proclaimed, that the Russian state is conducting a policy and a great defensive war. And the success in this regard is the recovery of "historical lands," along with the absence of a collapse of the state due to sanctions, etc. (translated)
An expression of elite mobilization was the ceremony accompanying W. Putin's speech in the Kremlin, where the president awarded state decorations to the deputies of the Duma. It is an element of the Kremlin's main goal: to indicate that loyalty to it is a guarantee of maintaining wealth, position, and even life. (translated)
Importantly, W. Putin invited the deputies of the Duma to the Kremlin, which is the clearest manifestation of this representative body’s subservience to the president. Regarding ideology and politics: during the ceremony, the success of the Duma (2021-2016) was recognized for its participation in the effective defense of Russia in the war. (translated)
The manifestation of the elite's mobilization was the ceremony of presenting state decorations/awards by the president accompanying W. Putin's speech in the Duma. It is simply an element of the Kremlin's main goal: to indicate that loyalty to him is the guarantee of maintaining wealth, position, and even life. (translated)
The speech of W. Putin at the end of the VIII term of the State Duma is: - an active phase of the electoral operation and preparation for the next Duma (until 2031); - mobilization of the elite for further efforts and loyalty; - manifestation of institutional stability and the will and strength of W. Putin. (translated)
When I talk lately with "people from there," a lot is clear, and the interlocutors do not hide too much about what is happening in Russia. However, as is the nature of such regimes, one main issue remains for them mostly still a paramount problem and mystery, namely the will and perseverance of V. Putin. (translated)
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