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The article discusses the developments of the bull market on US exchanges, which has been ongoing since October 2022, during which the S&P 500 has risen by more than 110 percent, while also pointing to potential risks of overheating and rising inflation that could lead to a bear market. #Bullenmarkt #Aktienmarkt #Inflation (translated)

Furkan Yildirim wrote that Bank of America has been examining the correlation between the yield of ten-year US Treasury bonds and stocks since 1962. At yields below 2 percent, the value was plus 0.5, and between 4 and 5 percent, it was plus 0.2. Between 5 and 6 percent, there was no correlation; at yields of 6 to 7 percent, the correlation was minus 0.3, from 7 to 8 percent minus 0.2, and above 8 percent minus 0.3. According to Yildirim, Bank of America explained the change by stating that low interest rates are usually associated with a strong economy, while high interest rates increasingly lead to inflation and expensive loans, making government bonds compete with stocks. The bank summarizes the thresholds, according to Yildirim, as follows: starting from 5 percent, investors become indifferent to stocks and bonds; above 6 percent, higher interest rates harm stocks, and above 7 percent, valuations decline significantly. The ten-year yield reached 5.36 percent in the previous week, the highest level since 2002, and had risen by around 0.7 percentage points since July. After inflation data on Wednesday, it jumped to 5.33 percent; at the time of his contribution, it was around 5.1 percent. Yildirim wrote that the market is already behaving as if yields were above 6 percent: according to Goldman Sachs, the correlation with the S&P 500 was minus 0.56, down from minus 0.64 in June – the lowest value since the start of the data series in 2011. Moreover, according to Yildirim, the ten-year bond is now yielding more than the S&P 500 generates in profits per dollar invested; this was last the case in the early 2000s. As an indication of the importance of inflation, he mentioned that high interest rates during times of high inflation have almost always been a burden for stocks. US inflation was at 3.7 percent in September, up from 3.4 percent in August; gasoline had cost 34 percent more than a year earlier. After the data, the probability of another Fed rate hike in October increased from about 20 to 47 percent. #Börse #Aktienmarkt #Zinsen (translated)

In the third quarter, four of the five largest US banks increased their profits, while Bank of America is declining due to a significant money laundering fine and a lack of participation in a major IPO, with rising interest rates potentially posing challenges in the future. #USBanken #Aktienmarkt #Gewinne (translated)

The semiconductor market is currently experiencing a selling wave due to the announcements from the Chinese manufacturer CXMT and the high skepticism towards business models in the AI sector, leading to drastic price losses for chip stocks worldwide. #Halbleiter #Aktienmarkt #KünstlicheIntelligenz (translated)

The earnings season for the third quarter of 2026 could provide more stability to the markets through a reassuring order after the volatility in the summer, while at the same time the expectations for the results of companies like Samsung, ASML, and TSMC seem more realistic, as a potential IPO of Anthropic could further influence market dynamics. #Bilanzsaison #Aktienmarkt #KünstlicheIntelligenz (translated)

Dr. Kristin Brinker wrote that BMW rates AfD politicians lower than dictators like Kim Jong-il, Hussein, and Assad. She described it as irresponsible that the DAX corporation allows itself to be instrumentalized and positioned against AfD voters. Given the difficult market environment for German car manufacturers, this is remarkable, she added. Furthermore, she wrote that the BMW share price has fallen by about 45 percent over the past three years. https://t.co/tZAlgntgAW #BMW #Aktienmarkt #AfD (translated)

Despite the challenges at the production site in Germany, the 40 DAX companies are showing positive development with increasing revenues and profits, which makes them competitive in international comparison and currently makes the DAX valuation appear favorable. #Dax #Aktienmarkt #Finanzen (translated)

Despite a surprisingly sharp decline in industrial orders in Germany of 10.6 percent in August, the DAX recorded an increase of 0.5 percent at the beginning of the week, supported by the technological rally on Wall Street and a positive sentiment in the stock market. #DAX #Industrie #Energiepreise (translated)

Maxim Röder wrote that he completely sold Applovin for a profit at the beginning of 2026. The stock then traded sideways for months and at times was significantly above his selling price, but is now around 41 percent below. The price trend shows him that evaluations of his decision changed depending on the stock's performance. For assessing Applovin, it is more important to understand the operational business and the valuation drivers, Röder wrote. The company has achieved a dominant position in mobile gaming with its AXON engine. Since the entire mobile gaming market is only growing organically in the low single-digit percentage range, gaming alone, in his opinion, can no longer enable sustainable hypergrowth rates. While the segment continues to generate high cash flows, it is not a sufficient growth driver for a hypergrowth valuation. The management is therefore trying to penetrate e-commerce and web advertising. However, this step is not proceeding linearly, Röder wrote. Outside of mobile gaming, Applovin lacks a natural moat; at the same time, training and computing costs are rising in the short term, and the market is skeptical. Analyst forecasts for medium-term revenue growth are already falling below 30 percent starting in 2027, he stated. Ultimately, it will be crucial whether the management is right with its e-commerce vision. #Aktienmarkt #Investieren #MobileGaming (translated)