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The Elections Research reported that a CNT/MDA poll for the Presidency showed Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) with 50.5% and Lula (PT) with 49.5% of valid votes in a second-round simulation. According to the publication, the 1 percentage point difference was within the margin of error of 2.2 points, indicating a technical tie. The publication reported that the survey interviewed 2,014 voters between October 13 and 15, 2026. The confidence level was not provided in the submitted data, and the registration with the Electoral Court was BR-00652/2026. https://t.co/1DrgP2aFuF #Eleições2026 #Voto #Brasil (translated)

Tafouk TV – how three Sahel military governments are building a common information system Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger are no longer relying only on speeches, social media or their existing national broadcasters to shape the information environment around the Alliance of Sahel States. They are building a shared, permanent media infrastructure. At its centre is Tafouk TV, the confederal television channel of the AES, broadcasting from Bamako. Its creation was formally agreed by the three governments in December 2025, its governing structure was installed in 2026 and regular programming began in September. The project is explicitly presented by AES authorities as an instrument of “information sovereignty” and what Malian Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop has called “narrative sovereignty”. A television channel built by three military governments Tafouk TV is fundamentally different from a covert bot network or a collection of anonymous propaganda accounts. Its ownership and political purpose are public. It is an institutional broadcaster created by the governments of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, all currently led by military authorities. Malian government documents describe the channel as a common media instrument intended to strengthen communication across the confederation, promote regional identities and respond to what the AES sees as hostile narratives and disinformation. The project sits alongside Daandè Liptako, a shared radio service, and broader plans to develop common information structures across the three states. That institutional architecture is important. A social-media influence network can disappear when accounts are suspended. A television channel, radio network and future news agency can develop journalists, archives, correspondents, distribution agreements and continuous daily output. The result is not a temporary campaign but potentially a long-term information system. Russia enters through RT The Russian connection is also public. In July 2026, Tafouk TV signed a cooperation agreement with RT, the Russian state-funded international broadcaster. The memorandum was signed by Tafouk TV director-general Salif Sanogo and Natalia Lebedeva, director of RT en français. It provides for content exchange, expertise-sharing and joint coverage of major events in Russia and the Sahel. RT described itself as Tafouk TV's first international partner. This makes Tafouk part of a much broader geopolitical realignment in the Sahel. Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have reduced cooperation with France and other Western partners while deepening political, diplomatic and security relations with Moscow. But the distinction is important: there is no public evidence that Russia owns Tafouk TV, finances the entire channel or directly controls its editorial decisions. The most precise description is therefore a state-owned AES broadcaster with a formal partnership with Russian state media, rather than a Russian-controlled television station. The battle over the narrative AES officials make little attempt to hide the strategic role they expect the channel to play. During a visit to Tafouk TV shortly after regular broadcasting began, Abdoulaye Diop described communication as another strategic front alongside defence, diplomacy and development. He spoke of a geopolitical environment characterised by a “war of narratives” and said the AES needed its own media to defend its interests and strengthen its narrative sovereignty. Mali's government has similarly described Tafouk TV as an instrument of information sovereignty, regional cohesion and Sahelian identity. The first governing-board meetings emphasised digital distribution, national languages and the creation of a new generation of Sahelian journalists capable of carrying the confederation's message at home and abroad. Early reporting examined by the Financial Times found patriotic programming, interviews with officials and positive reporting from conflict zones. The newspaper described the project in the context of the three governments' attempts to challenge Western media narratives and strengthen their legitimacy while facing continuing jihadist insurgencies. Why this is not simply another disinformation operation It is important not to use propaganda and disinformation as synonyms. A state broadcaster can systematically promote the government's preferred interpretation of events without every story being false.Tafouk TV's significance therefore lies less in individual fabricated claims than in the information architecture being created around it: three governments operating a shared broadcaster, common radio infrastructure and potentially other confederal media, while cooperating with Russia's international state-media system. This development is taking place while independent media conditions across the three countries are deteriorating. Reporters Without Borders ranked Burkina Faso 110th, Niger 120th and Mali 121st in its 2026 World Press Freedom Index, pointing to arbitrary detentions, restrictions on journalists and suspensions of media outlets across the AES states. That context changes the importance of Tafouk TV. A new state broadcaster entering a diverse and competitive media environment is one thing. A common government-controlled broadcaster expanding while alternative sources face restrictions is another. From influence campaigns to permanent infrastructure Tafouk TV illustrates an important evolution in the information contest in the Sahel. Russian and pro-Russian influence in Africa has often relied on social-media networks, influencers, fake experts, local partners or apparently independent media outlets. Tafouk represents something more durable: formal state institutions can now carry many of the same geopolitical narratives openly and continuously. The audience figures are not yet sufficiently established to demonstrate how influential Tafouk TV will become. It may eventually reach far fewer people than some viral online operations, or its television, radio and digital infrastructure may give it far greater long-term significance. Sources Government of Mali — Tafouk TV governing board and strategic mission https://gouvernement.ml/conseil-dadministration-de-tafouk-tv-installe-a-bamako-le-ministre-alhamdou-ag-ilyene-trace-les-orientations-strategiques-de-la-chaine-confederale/ Government of Mali — Abdoulaye Diop and “narrative sovereignty” https://gouvernement.ml/communication-confederale-de-laes-sem-abdoulaye-diop-a-la-decouverte-de-tafouk/ Government of Mali — creation of Tafouk TV and Daandè Liptako https://gouvernement.ml/conseil-national-de-la-transition-le-cnt-adopte-deux-textes-majeurs-relatifs-a-la-creation-de-tafouk-tv-et-de-la-radio-daande-liptako/ Government of Mali — ratification and information-sovereignty objectives https://gouvernement.ml/2026/05/30/ Government of Mali — Tafouk TV board and Prime Minister Abdoulaye Maïga https://gouvernement.ml/television-de-lalliance-des-etats-du-sahel-tafouk-tv-les-membres-du-conseil-dadministration-prennent-les-orientations-et-conseils-du-premier-ministre-abdoulaye-maiga/ RT en français — cooperation agreement between RT and Tafouk TV https://rtenfrance.tv/news/136036-rt-devient-premier-partenaire-international-tafouk-tv-chaine-commune-aes APA News — Tafouk TV and Daandè Liptako common AES media infrastructure https://fr.apanews.net/communication/tafouk-tv-et-daande-liptako-le-mali-consolide-les-medias-communs-de-laes/ APA News — Tafouk TV begins regular programming https://fr.apanews.net/communication/aes-tafouk-tv-demarre-ses-programmes/ Financial Times — Sahel juntas launch Tafouk TV with Russian backing https://www.ft.com/content/259b49a1-8eda-4e8d-84c7-45323988b07b Reporters Without Borders — 2026 Press Freedom Index: Africa https://rsf.org/en/classement/2026/afrique Keywords #DISINFORMED #Episode18 #TafoukTV #AES #AllianceOfSahelStates #Sahel #Mali #BurkinaFaso #Niger #Russia #RussianInfluence #RussianMedia #RT #RussiaToday #StateMedia #StatePropaganda #InformationSovereignty #NarrativeSovereignty #InformationWarfare #InfluenceOperations #StrategicCommunication #MediaInfluence #MediaControl #Propaganda #Disinformation #ForeignInfluence #FIMI #Africa #WestAfrica #MilitaryGovernment #MilitaryRule #SahelMedia #DaandeLiptako #MediaInfrastructure #NarrativeControl #PressFreedom #MediaFreedom #Geopolitics #OSINT #WRLD

"You can't spend 60% of your salary on rent." Although only red flags are waving, some of them splashed with the initials of the CNT, and the "working class" is proclaimed, those present know that the cross-cutting issue is that, "if things don't change," as Antonio states, "we will all be exposed to living a foreclosure." #ViviendaDigna #Desahucios #LuchaSocial (translated)

Magdiel Alves released numbers attributed to MDA/CNT according to which, in 2022, Lula had 48% and Jair Bolsonaro, 40%, while the result in the polls was 48% to 43%. For 2026, he indicated Lula with 49% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 44%. Alves said that this time, the data was weighted based on the 2022 vote, which would reduce the chances of error, and stated that Lula could win in the first round. #Lula #Eleições2026 #PolíticaBrasileira (translated)

Fernando Holiday stated that the polls indicated a favorable wave for Flávio on the last day of campaigning. According to him, Flávio had risen 7 points in the CNT/MDA, 4 points in the Quaest, and 2 points in the Datafolha. Holiday also said that a qualitative poll by Quaest, conducted during the cancellation of the Globo debate, indicated that undecided voters understood that the STF tried to help Lula. In his assessment, Lula's flight could have turned against the candidate. Holiday estimated that Flávio would have 48% of the votes, Lula 46%, and the other candidates 6%. He added that he did not rule out the possibility of Flávio reaching 50.1% and winning in the first round. #Eleições2023 #Política #Flávio (translated)

Renato Souza released figures that he attributed to spontaneous polls for the first presidential round on October 3rd. According to the publication, CNT/MDA showed Lula with 48.6% and Flávio with 44.3%; Quaest showed Lula with 46.1% and Flávio with 42.1%; and Datafolha showed Lula with 46.5% and Flávio with 38.4%. #Eleições2022 #Pesquisa #Brasil (translated)

Renato Souza stated that the information claiming that polls showed an increase in Flávio Bolsonaro and a drop for Lula after the cancellation of a television debate was false. According to him, there was no evidence that the suspension of the event had changed the percentages of voting intention. Souza said that the CNT poll indicated an increase for Flávio Bolsonaro and a slight rise for Lula compared to 15 days earlier. #Eleições2024 #PolíticaBR #FakeNews (translated)

Renato Souza disclosed, on October 3, results of presidential polls on valid votes in the stimulated scenario. According to the numbers he presented, CNT/MDA recorded Lula with 47.8% and Flávio with 42.1%; Quaest, Lula with 46% and Flávio with 45%; Datafolha, Lula with 45% and Flávio with 42%; PoderData, Lula with 45% and Flávio with 43%; and Palver, Flávio with 47% and Lula with 43%. #Eleições2023 #Pesquisas #Lula (translated)

Alargolo stated that, according to the CNT/MDA, DataFolha, and Quaest polls, Lula had between 45% and 47.8% of valid votes. The author expressed his belief that the president's result would be this or even a percentage point higher, and he urged his supporters to remain mobilized, anticipating a victory. #Lula #Eleições2024 #PolíticaBrasileira (translated)

Puraingresia wrote that there was still time until the last minute of the next day to try for a historic victory for Lula in the first round. Referring to CNT, she stated that the candidate had increased from 47% to 47.8% of valid votes and said that there was little time left. She also asked for the call of the Yanomami women to be amplified, mentioning Hanna Limulja. https://t.co/J6pUqCM7FH #Eleições2023 #Democracia #Brasil (translated)

Renato Souza stated that the previous survey from CNT had been conducted 15 days prior and that the most recent result showed a significant increase for Flávio Bolsonaro. He also mentioned that, within the margin of error, Lula could win in the first round. According to Souza, CNT was the one that was most accurate in the elections of 2018 and 2022. #Pesquisa #Eleições2024 #Política (translated)

Renato Souza released numbers from the CNT/MDA research for president, considering valid votes: Lula (PT) had 47.8% (+1), Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), 42.1% (+7), Augusto Cury (Avante), 3.5% (-3), Caiado (PSD), 3.3% (=), Renan Santos (Missão), 1.6% (-1), and Romeu Zema (Novo), 0.8% (=). According to Souza, the survey was conducted between 30/09 and 2/10, with 2,007 interviews, and had the registration BR-04756/2026. #Eleições2026 #Votação #Brasil (translated)

Victor Garcia stated that the CNT survey reassured him and that its numbers were consistent with other polls. According to him, the survey indicated a ceiling of votes for Flávio and a higher rejection of him than of Lula. Garcia said that, as he had already predicted, the election would be defined by rejection and by the end of the 6x1 scale, which could be approved in the second round. #Eleições2024 #Política #Pesquisa (translated)

Barbara 13 stated that the surveys from CNT, Quaest, and Datafolha pointed to the same scenario: Lula was leading the first round with a five-point advantage and would win the second round. She concluded with a statement of support for number 13. #Lula #Eleições2024 #Brasil (translated)

Biazita Gomes stated that, in the stimulated first-round polls by CNT, Lula reached 48%. She said that, considering the margin of error of 2.2%, there would be, at the limit, a possibility of victory in the first round. She also argued that all progressives should vote and described the scenario as having a second round already in the first. #Lula #Eleições2024 #VoteConsciente (translated)

The Political Axis released the numbers from the CNT/MDA survey for the second round of the 2026 elections. In a scenario against Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), Lula (PT) had 47.3%, with no variation, and Bolsonaro, 43.1%, with a rise of 3.1 percentage points. Against the writer Augusto Cury (Avante), Lula appeared with 46.8%, an increase of 1.5 points, and Cury with 37.9%, a decrease of 0.5 points. In the scenario with Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), Lula had 47.0%, an advance of 0.6 points, and Caiado, 37.3%, with no variation. Against Renan Santos (Mission), Lula recorded 48.1%, an increase of 0.8 points, and Santos, 34.3%, an advance of 0.4 points. Facing Zema (New), Lula had 49.2%, a rise of 1.5 points, and Zema, 34.2%, a decrease of 0.3 points. According to the publication, the survey interviewed 2,007 people in person between September 30 and October 2, with a margin of error of ±2.2 percentage points. The registration at the TSE was BR-04756/2026. #Eleições2026 #Lula #Bolsonaro (translated)

JH Fonseca stated that Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) had advanced 7.6 points in the latest CNT/MDA poll, which he classified as leftist, and appeared with 38.0%, compared to 43.1% for Lula (PT), who had risen 2.6 points. He said that the trend could pave the way for a surprising victory and predicted a surprise for the following day. #Eleições2024 #Política #Brasil (translated)

The profile Pesquisas Eleições released data from the CNT/MDA survey, according to which 47.4% approved of President Lula and 49.2% disapproved; 3.4% did not know or did not respond. Compared to the previous survey, approval had risen by 1.5 points, while disapproval had decreased by 0.5 points, the profile reported. In the evaluation of the government, 35.3% considered it excellent or good, 41.1% bad or terrible, and 22.7% regular. Another 0.9% did not know or did not respond. The profile stated that evaluations of excellent or good had increased by 1.5 points and those of bad or terrible by 1.7 points, while the regular evaluation had dropped by 2.7 points. According to the technical note released, the survey was conducted by CNT/MDA from September 30 to October 2, 2026, with 2,002 interviews nationwide. The reported margin of error was ±2.2 percentage points, with a confidence level of 95%. The registration with the TSE was BR-04756/2026. #Lula #Aprovação #Governo (translated)