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The Electoral Research informed that, in a Futura/Apex survey on valid votes in the second round, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) had 51%, up 1 point, and Lula (PT), 49%, down 1 point. According to the publication, the advantage of 2.2 percentage points constituted a technical tie, considering the margin of error of ±2.2 points. The percentages excluded blank, null, and undecided votes. The survey interviewed 2,000 people by phone, with computer-assisted interviews (CATI), on the days 19 and 20 of October 2026. The publication reported a confidence level of 95% and registered with the TSE under the number BR-06614/2026. #Eleições2026 #Votação #PesquisaEleitoral (translated)

The Election Research released a survey by France Research, Intelligence and Opinion about the presidential election in Brazil, conducted from October 16 to 20, 2026. In the valid votes for the second round, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) appeared with 50.8% and Lula (PT) with 49.2%. The publication stated that the difference of 1.6 percentage points, within the margin of error of 1.8 points, characterized a technical tie. In the total voting, Flávio Bolsonaro had 40.95% and Lula 39.65%. Blank, null, or none accounted for 10.56%, while 8.84% did not know. The publication noted that about one-fifth of the respondents fell into these groups. According to the technical sheet released, the survey interviewed 3,000 people by phone, using the CATI method, across the 27 federative units. The survey had a confidence level of 95%, was contracted with its own resources, and was registered with the TSE under number BR-07896/2026. #Pesquisa #Eleições2026 #Brasil (translated)

Elections Research reported that the Federal Police launched Operation Linceu on Monday (19) to investigate suspicions that Humberto Pradera, former Secretary of Information Technology of the STJ, was passing confidential information to lawyer Willer Tomaz, a friend of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ). According to the publication, the investigation indicated that documents and drafts of court decisions had reached the lawyer before being officially published. #PolíciaFederal #Corrupção #Justiça (translated)

The Elections Research informed that Daniella Marques, economic coordinator of Flávio Bolsonaro's (PL-RJ) campaign, said that the proposal established a two-year transition period for beneficiaries to find formal employment or start a business. According to her, after that period, families would leave the program but could automatically return if the attempt was unsuccessful. #FlávioBolsonaro #Economia #Emprego (translated)

Research Elections informed, based on a survey by AtlasIntel in partnership with Bloomberg, that Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) had 51.1% of valid votes in the second round, compared to 48.9% for Lula (PT). According to the publication, Flávio's lead had dropped from 5.6 to 2.2 percentage points compared to the previous survey, following a decline of 1.7 points for the senator and a similar gain for the president. The publication stated that the numbers indicated a more balanced competition, but did not represent, in isolation, a definitive change in the electoral trend. The survey interviewed 5,026 people nationwide, between October 13 and 18. The previous survey was conducted from October 3 to 8. The margin of error was ±1 percentage point, and the confidence level was 95%. The registration with the TSE was BR-03663/2026. The publication cited JOTA as the source. #Eleições2023 #FlávioBolsonaro #Lula (translated)

Polls Elections released a national survey from PoderData/AYA for the second round of the presidential race, considering valid votes. According to the publication, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) had 52%, compared to 48% for Lula (PT). In comparison to the previous survey, Bolsonaro had risen by two percentage points and Lula had dropped by two, a four-point change in the difference between the candidates. The publication emphasized that the survey reflected the moment and did not predict the electoral outcome. According to the technical sheet released, the survey was conducted from October 16 to 18, 2026, with 3,000 interviews nationwide. The margin of error was 1.8 percentage points, and the confidence level was 95%. The registration with the TSE was BR-02586/2026. #Eleições2026 #PoderData #PolíticaBrasileira (translated)

Elections Research reported that, in a BTG/NEXUS survey on the second round of the presidential election in Brazil, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) had 50.3% of valid votes and Lula (PT) had 49.7%, without rounding. According to the publication, Flávio dropped 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous round, while Lula gained 1.3 points, leaving the two separated by 0.6 points. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18, 2026, with 2,002 interviews, a margin of error of ±2 percentage points, and a confidence level of 95%. The registration in the TSE reported was BR-04499/2026. Elections Research stated that the result, on its own, did not allow for the identification of a winner. #Eleições2026 #Pesquisa #Brasil (translated)

The Pesquisa Eleições released numbers from a BTG/NEXUS national poll indicating a 48.8% disapproval rating for President Lula, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points, and a 47.2% approval rating, an increase of 1.9 points. Those who did not know or did not respond accounted for 4.1%, a drop of 0.7 points. According to the publication, the difference between approval and disapproval decreased from 5.5 to 1.6 percentage points. In evaluating the government, 42.9% considered the management bad or terrible, a decrease of 2 points; 32.4% rated it as excellent or good, a drop of 1.4 points; and 23.6% said it was regular, an increase of 3.4 points. Another 1% did not know or did not respond, with no variation. Pesquisa Eleições stated that the change in the distribution of evaluations, on its own, did not represent a definitive trend. According to the technical sheet released, the survey was conducted from October 16 to 18, 2026, with 2,002 interviews, a margin of error of 2 percentage points, and a confidence level of 95%. The registration number at the TSE reported was BR-04499/2026. #Pesquisa #Política #Brasil (translated)

The surveys Elections reported that the BTG/NEXUS poll for the presidential runoff, in the spontaneous modality, indicated Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and Lula (PT) tied, both with 44.5%. According to the publication, Flávio had decreased by 1.8 percentage points compared to the previous round, while Lula maintained the same index. Those who did not know or did not respond totaled 6.2%, an increase of 2.3 points; blank, null, or no candidate accounted for 4.7%, a decrease of 0.5 points. The publication stated that the survey was conducted from October 16 to 18, 2026, with 2,002 interviews, a margin of error of ±2 percentage points, and a confidence level of 95%. The registration with the TSE was BR-04499/2026. #PesquisaEleitoral #Brasil2026 #Eleições (translated)

Research Elections reported that a national survey by BTG/NEXUS for the presidential runoff indicated Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) with 46.5% of the total votes and Lula (PT) with 45.9%. According to the publication, Flávio had decreased by 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous round, while Lula had increased by 0.8 points; the difference between them narrowed by 2.2 points. The publication also recorded 4.7% for none, blank, or null votes, and 2.9% of responses "NS/NR". It assessed that the 0.6 point difference between the candidates placed them in a situation of proximity within the margin of error and that the survey did not allow for a definitive statement on who would win the election. According to the technical sheet released, the institute interviewed 2,002 people between October 16 and 18, 2026. The margin of error was ±2 percentage points, with a confidence level of 95%. The registration with the TSE was BR-04499/2026. #Eleições2026 #Pesquisa #Brasil (translated)

Polls Elections reported that a BTG/NEXUS poll for the second round of the presidential election, considering valid votes, showed Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and Lula (PT) with 50% each. In relation to the previous round, Flávio dropped 2 percentage points and Lula rose 2, according to the publication. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18, 2026, with 2,002 interviews and a margin of error of 2 percentage points, for a confidence level of 95%. The registration with the TSE reported was BR-04499/2026. #Eleições2026 #Pesquisa #Brasil (translated)

Election polls stated that a new round of electoral surveys was scheduled for the following day, but the surveys were not expected to fully capture the voters' reaction to the Band debate between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, held that day. Nexus, AtlasIntel, PoderData, and Futura were among the anticipated polls. (translated)

Elections Research reported that a survey by the Veritá institute for the national presidential runoff indicated Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) with 51.1% of valid votes and Lula (PT) with 48.9%. In detail, the survey recorded 51.07% for Bolsonaro and 48.93% for Lula, a difference of 2.14 percentage points, according to the publication. The publication stated that the survey had a margin of error of ±1 percentage point and a confidence level of 95%. The field work took place from October 12 to 16, 2026, with 15,554 interviewees. The registration with the TSE was BR-01107/2026, and the funding was described as an own initiative. Elections Research added that the results should be considered in light of the methodology and sample uncertainty and that, in isolation, they did not determine the electoral outcome. #Eleições2026 #Pesquisa #Brasil (translated)

The Elections Research reported that a CNT/MDA poll for the Presidency showed Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) with 50.5% and Lula (PT) with 49.5% of valid votes in a second-round simulation. According to the publication, the 1 percentage point difference was within the margin of error of 2.2 points, indicating a technical tie. The publication reported that the survey interviewed 2,014 voters between October 13 and 15, 2026. The confidence level was not provided in the submitted data, and the registration with the Electoral Court was BR-00652/2026. https://t.co/1DrgP2aFuF #Eleições2026 #Voto #Brasil (translated)

Research Elections released a survey by PoderData/AYA that showed Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and Lula (PT) tied with 50% of valid votes each in a potential second round. Compared to the previous survey, Flávio dropped one percentage point while Lula gained one point. The publication stated that, considering the margin of error of 1.8 percentage points, the numbers did not allow for a statistical superiority of one candidate. According to the technical data released, the survey was conducted nationally between October 13 and 15, 2026, with 3,000 interviews, a confidence level of 95%, and registered with the TSE BR-04258/2026. https://t.co/KiqJ2PfsoO #Eleição2026 #Brasil #LulaFlavio (translated)

Research Elections released numbers from a Datafolha survey for the presidential runoff, published on October 15, 2026. According to the presented data, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) had 47% of the total votes, compared to 45% for Lula (PT), while other votes accounted for 8%. In valid votes, Flávio appeared with 51% and Lula with 49%. The publication stated that the two-point difference kept the candidates in a technical tie, considering the margin of error, and that the race remained open ten days before the runoff. According to the technical sheet provided, the survey interviewed 2,520 people between October 13 and 15, had a margin of error of two percentage points, and a confidence level of 95%. The registration with the TSE was BR-00466/2026, and the indicated source was G1. #Eleições2026 #Datafolha #PolíticaBrasil (translated)

The Election Research informed that a survey by the Palver institute for the second round of the presidential election indicated Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) with 50% of the voting intentions and Lula (PT) with 49%, considering the total votes. Blank, null, and no candidate votes accounted for 1%, while undecided voters stood at 0%. The publication described the result as a technical tie, as the difference of 1 percentage point was less than the margin of error of 2.3 points. According to the technical sheet released, the survey was conducted from October 10 to 13, 2026, with 5,000 interviews and an effective sample of 1,783 people. The reported confidence level was 95%, and the registration with the TSE was BR-08028/2026. https://t.co/KiqJ2PfsoO #Eleições2026 #Voto #Brasil (translated)

Research Elections reported that a spontaneous poll by Quaest for the presidency recorded Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) with 43% and Lula (PT) with 42%. Blank, null, or absence of vote accounted for 8%, while 7% were undecided. The publication stated that, since the respondents did not receive a list of candidates, the survey measured who was remembered spontaneously, and that the difference of one point did not indicate a statistically conclusive advantage given the margin of error of two points. According to the technical sheet published, the poll was commissioned by Globo and the newspaper O Globo and conducted from October 10 to 13, 2026, with 2,154 people aged 16 or older. The margin of error was two percentage points, the confidence level was 95%, and the registration with the TSE was BR-08729/2026. https://t.co/MEK8D0lpvL #Pesquisa #Eleições2026 #PolíticaBrasileira (translated)

The Elections Research reported that a Quaest survey on the Presidency indicated a rejection of 54% for Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and 53% for Lula (PT). According to the publication, the rates were virtually tied and, considering the margin of error of two percentage points, there was no statistically conclusive difference. The report stated that the numbers measured the declared resistance of the interviewees, but did not solely determine electoral behavior. The publication mentioned that the survey was commissioned by Globo and the newspaper O Globo, and was conducted between October 10 and 13, 2026, with 2,154 interviewees aged 16 or older. It indicated a margin of error of two percentage points, a confidence level of 95%, and registration with the TSE BR-08729/2026. https://t.co/MEK8D0lpvL #Eleições2026 #PolíticaBrasil #RejeiçãoCandidatos (translated)

Election research reported that, in a PoderData/Aya survey about the presidential runoff in Brazil, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) had 51% of valid votes, compared to 49% for Lula (PT). According to the publication, in five days Lula advanced by 2 percentage points and Flávio retreated by 2, leaving the difference at 2 points — within the margin of error of 1.8 percentage points, which the publication classified as a technical tie. The survey was released on October 13, 2026, had a confidence level of 95%, and was registered with the TSE BR-08134/2026. https://t.co/m2zFXVILCZ #Eleições2026 #Lula #FlávioBolsonaro (translated)