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Dawisson Belém Lopes stated that the projection continued to improve and said that the more the polls indicated a reduction in the gap between the candidates, the more the coefficient of variation of the curve (delta) would adjust to a turnaround scenario. He highlighted the numbers predicted for October 19 and 20 and assessed that it was the time to advance. #Eleições2023 #Política #Pesquisas (translated)

Biazita Gomes stated that analysts should not consider a turnaround in the second round impossible, which, according to her, presented a unique scenario in the country. She said that a mobilization of that level had never occurred with reflections in the polls and distinguished guesses from analyses. Gomes encouraged her supporters to continue talking, acting on social media, and defending democracy. #Democracia #Mobilização #Análise (translated)

The Political Analysis stated that a survey by IPESPE indicated a technical tie between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula in valid votes: 51% for Flávio, a decrease of 2 points, and 49% for Lula, an increase of 2 points. According to the publication, the previous survey had been conducted a week earlier. The interviews took place between the 13th and 15th, mostly before the end of the 6x1. #Lula #FlávioBolsonaro #pesquisa (translated)

Elections Research reported that a survey by the Veritá institute for the national presidential runoff indicated Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) with 51.1% of valid votes and Lula (PT) with 48.9%. In detail, the survey recorded 51.07% for Bolsonaro and 48.93% for Lula, a difference of 2.14 percentage points, according to the publication. The publication stated that the survey had a margin of error of ±1 percentage point and a confidence level of 95%. The field work took place from October 12 to 16, 2026, with 15,554 interviewees. The registration with the TSE was BR-01107/2026, and the funding was described as an own initiative. Elections Research added that the results should be considered in light of the methodology and sample uncertainty and that, in isolation, they did not determine the electoral outcome. #Eleições2026 #Pesquisa #Brasil (translated)

Roberto Reis evaluated Globo's interview with Lula and Flávio, assigning grades of 6 and 8, respectively. According to him, Lula avoided major mistakes and communicated his ideas, although his hoarse voice bothered some voters in qualitative assessments. Reis stated that the president did little to promote his proposals, attacked Flávio minimally, and did not highlight the bus fare issue. He also criticized Lula's tendency to overly contextualize his answers, which, in his evaluation, reduced the time to address the main points and hindered the production of snippets for social media. Regarding Flávio, Reis said he defended the continuity of social programs, attacked Lula, and accused the opposing campaign of spreading false information. He also emphasized the candidate's statement that Lula would have forgotten about Bolsa Família for four years, while he would remember the program every day. Reis assessed that Flávio dodged questions that could become traps but noted that Renata pressed for answers not given and was, at times, more incisive with him. Reis considered that Flávio achieved more objectives than Lula and won the interview. According to his evaluation, Lula made a serious mistake when responding about Bolsa Família, allowing the opponent to exploit the issue, while Flávio did not have serious flaws. Although he stated that Flávio did not have an extraordinary performance, Reis affirmed that the result was positive for him, who, according to the author, was leading the polls as he approached the final stretch of the campaign. #Eleições2023 #PolíticaBrasil #DebateEleitoral (translated)

Noblat's blog stated that Flávio called the proposal to restrict gun ownership "crazy," a proposal supported by the majority of Brazilians in a survey presented by Renata Lo Prete. The author found it curious how he addressed the voters, suggesting that when they disagreed with the candidate, the problem seemed to be theirs. He also wrote that Flávio had already avoided answering a question about the identification of ammunition twice. The publication attributed the information to Globo. #armas #segurança #política (translated)

Erika Hilton stated that polls indicated the campaign was close to a turning point and mentioned that there were eight days left. She urged supporters not to become complacent and to spread the word about what Lula would have done and what Flávio Bolsonaro threatened to do, including the end of the 6x1 schedule, which, according to her, had just been achieved. Hilton also advised followers to block deputies who, in her view, lied about Lula, and invited them to join her team through the link in her bio. #Virada #Lula #Eleições2023 (translated)

Leo Kasura stated that a new survey from the Gerp Institute, which was described as the second most reliable institute during the first round, showed Flávio with 52.6% and Lula with 47.4%, a lead of over five percentage points. He assessed that Lula's electoral measures had not converted votes and said that the PT campaign was still far from the lead as it approached the weekend. Kasura advocated that the PL intensify its campaign in the following week to increase Flávio's lead. He also stated that Lula neither had the age nor the mental capacity to continue as President and criticized the president for, according to him, forgetting that the Bolsa Família went almost four years without an increase during his own government. In the end, he expressed support for the right in Brazil. #Eleições2023 #Brasil #Política (translated)

BRPolls reported that, according to a GERP survey, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) had 50% of voting intentions in the second round, compared to 45% for Lula (PT). The survey also indicated 2% for no candidate and 3% of respondents who did not know or did not answer. In parentheses, the results showed variations of -3 for Bolsonaro, +1 for Lula, +1 for none, and no change for NS/NR. The survey interviewed 2,400 voters between October 14 and 16, had a margin of error of ±2 percentage points, and was registered with the TSE under code BR-05187/2026. (translated)

David Ágape wrote that, weeks before the first round of the elections, More in Common Brasil and researchers from UFRJ downloaded and politically categorized about 7,500 broadcasts of masses and services, totaling nearly 14,000 hours of audio. According to him, the church channels were monitored for two months in search of political and electoral references. Ágape stated that the NGO claimed to have used its own resources, but documents indicated that Luminate, an organization funded by Pierre Omidyar, had allocated around R$ 1.3 million to set up the Brazilian operation. He also mentioned Open Society, founded by George Soros, as a supporter of another research project by the branch. According to the author, the cost of monitoring and the source of the resources had not been detailed, and those responsible for the organization did not respond to some questions. https://t.co/MzuOako95t #Eleições2023 #Transparência #Religião (translated)

JH Fonseca stated that the STF had resumed the persecution of political opponents and said that Alexandre de Moraes had made journalist Oswaldo Eustáqui a defendant for criminal association, claiming that he used social media against the Democratic State of Law. The author also linked the resumption of what he called "nonsense" to Lula's improvement in polls. #STF #LiberdadeDeExpressão #Democracia (translated)

JH Fonseca stated that a survey by MDA, which he classified as leftist, showed Flávio with 50.5% of valid votes and Lula with 49.5%. He said that the result was bad news for Lula and claimed that, according to information from campaign insiders, the team expected a turnaround on Friday, but it did not happen even in the MDA survey. #Eleições2024 #PolíticaBrasileira #Lula (translated)

Roberto Reis stated that the electoral race was tight and, in his assessment, Lula had been regaining votes among voters from classes D and E, especially among those concerned about losing social benefits. According to him, this group had supported Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round after promises of improvements and prosperity. Reis said that Lula was not gaining votes from Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, or Renan, but from Flávio. The author claimed that there was an unprecedented fear campaign, with allegations of the political use of CRAS, daycare centers, and educational institutions, in addition to the circulation of false information. According to Reis, voters were being warned that they could lose their pensions, Bolsa Família, BPC, and minimum wage adjustments. Reis said that Flávio had already started to react with an advertisement about public safety, crime, and factions, which also reaffirmed the commitment to maintain and improve social programs. In the author's view, the response should be more incisive, with the participation of new allies. He also advocated for Flávio and Cleitinho to jointly present a national proposal for the IPVA, citing the discussion about the tax in Minas Gerais, where, according to him, Cleitinho won in the first round. Regarding the polls, Reis assessed that Flávio was still leading by about 2 points, possibly reaching 3 in the final stretch, while Lula faced greater rejection and a persistent ceiling. He noted that some polls already indicated a tie but expressed reservations about the sampling considerations, especially regarding the composition of social segments. For Reis, the transfer of votes from the third way had already occurred, and the challenge was to maintain the votes gained in the first round. He asked Rogério Marinho to demand greater participation from the new allies and a more precise direction for communication actions. #Eleições2024 #Lula #FlávioBolsonaro (translated)

Pedro Menin stated that he reviewed a table sent by a follower about 10 elections and 17 run-offs between 1989 and 2026. According to him, in 15 of the 17 cases, or 88%, the official result was more favorable to the opponent of the PT than indicated by the DataFolha polls. Menin noted that in the second round of 1989, the poll was conducted by Ibope. Based on the comparison, he said that in the second rounds, the ballots favored the PT's opponent by an average of 2 points compared to DataFolha. In the first rounds, the average was said to be 4 points in favor of the opponent of the PT candidate. For this year, he stated that the difference was 5 points in favor of Flávio, in line with historical trends. Menin predicted Flávio's victory, with a score between 52 to 48 and 54 to 46, and urged his supporters to maintain their engagement until the end. He also said they could hold him accountable on the 25th and that they would win. #Eleições2026 #PT #EngajamentoCívico (translated)

Thinking About History stated that engagement with lulista posts on Instagram had fallen a bit and urged that the research not reassure supporters. The profile argued that efforts should be doubled in the last week, with more interactions, shares, and conversations with people, and that rest could wait until after October 25. #Engajamento #Eleições2023 #Lula (translated)

Victor stated that a survey by the Futura Institute, which he classified as pro-Bolsonaro, showed Flávio Bolsonaro with 50.8% and Lula with 49.2%. According to him, the difference between the two had decreased from 3.6% to 1.6%, with Flávio dropping 1 point and Lula gaining 1 point. Victor also advocated for continuous mobilization on social media and in the streets. #Eleicoes2024 #Brasil #Mobilização (translated)

Vitor de Lucca released a Future survey for the Presidency, in a stimulated second round scenario, with results from October 14 to 15 and a comparison with October 7 to 10. According to the published numbers, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) had 49.0%, a decrease of 1.0 point, and Lula (PT) had 47.5%, an increase of 0.9 points. NS/NR/undecided amounted to 2.1% (+0.4 points), while nobody, blank or null votes accounted for 1.5% (-0.2 points). The margin of error was 2.2%, with a confidence level of 95%; the registration with the TSE was BR-03764/2026. #Eleições2022 #Pesquisa #Brasil (translated)

Vitor de Lucca reported that a national survey by FUTURA for the Presidency, referencing the periods from October 7 to 10 and from October 14 to 15, showed Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) with 50.8% of the valid votes in the second round and Lula (PT) with 49.2%. According to the data released, the percentages varied, respectively, by -1.0% and +1.0%. De Lucca indicated a margin of error of 2.2%, a confidence level of 95%, and registration with the TSE under the number BR-03764/2026. #Pesquisa #Eleições2024 #Brasil (translated)