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El Nino 2026-27 è sempre più probabile ma la sua intensità non è ancora scritta. L’aggiornamento NOAA-CPC dell’8 giugno conferma una situazione molto interessante, il Pacifico equatoriale è ancora formalmente in condizioni ENSO-neutrali, ma con El Nino Watch attivo e segnali oceanici e atmosferici sempre più favorevoli allo sviluppo di El Nino nei prossimi mesi. Le temperature superficiali del Pacifico centrale e orientale sono ormai in gran parte sopra la media, Nino 4 a +0.7°C, Nino 3.4 a +0.7°C, Nino 3 a +1.0°C e Nino 1+2 a +2.1°C. Negli ultimi due mesi anche sotto la superficie le anomalie calde si sono rafforzate e hanno persistito su gran parte del Pacifico equatoriale. Inoltre, nei primi 300 metri dell’oceano il contenuto di calore è sopra media, un segnale importante, perché El Nino non nasce solo dalla superficie, ma dal progressivo accoppiamento tra oceano profondo, superficie e atmosfera. E l’atmosfera comincia a rispondere. NOAA segnala anomalie di vento occidentale a 850 hPa sul Pacifico equatoriale centrale da metà marzo, recentemente estese a gran parte del bacino, gli alisei tendono a indebolirsi e questo può favorire onde di Kelvin oceaniche, propagazione del calore verso est e ulteriore riscaldamento del Pacifico orientale. Le probabilità ufficiali sono alte, 82% di sviluppo di El Nino nel trimestre maggio-luglio 2026 e 96% di persistenza durante l’inverno boreale 2026-27. Ma qui arriva il punto decisivo. Oggi El Nino non è ancora pienamente dichiarato, il RONI marzo-maggio 2026 è ancora a -0.1°C, quindi sotto la soglia operativa di +0.5°C, che deve essere accompagnata da segnali atmosferici coerenti e persistenti e anche sull’intensità NOAA resta prudente, per novembre 2026-gennaio 2027 indica circa 2 possibilità su 3 che l’evento possa diventare forte o molto forte, ma anche 1 possibilità su 3 che resti sotto la soglia di "strong". Il segnale è robusto ma intensità, picco e impatti globali dipenderanno da quanto il sistema oceano-atmosfera riuscirà davvero ad accoppiarsi nei prossimi mesi. Questa è la vera climatologia, osservare, misurare, aggiornare senza anticipare sentenze. #ElNino #ClimateChange #WeatherUpdate

The Indian Meteorological Department has announced the arrival of the Southwest Monsoon in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, with the monsoon system already covering the Nicobar Islands, parts of the Andaman Islands, and significant areas of the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, and forecasts indicate it may reach Kerala four days earlier than usual. #Monsoon #WeatherUpdate #ClimateChange #IN #LK #MU #BD #AE #SA #AF

The India Meteorological Department predicts that the monsoon is likely to arrive in the Andaman Islands within the next 24 hours, with a potential onset in Kerala between May 25 and 26, while a heatwave is expected to persist in parts of northwestern and central India, particularly affecting regions of Maharashtra. #Monsoon #WeatherUpdate #IndiaWeather #IN #AN #LC #TT #PG #KE #PU #MH #GA #TN #KY #KN

The weather department predicts that the monsoon is likely to arrive in the Andaman Islands within the next 24 hours, with a possibility of reaching Kerala around May 25-26, while a heatwave is expected to persist in northwestern and central India, particularly affecting parts of Maharashtra and Goa. #Monsoon2023 #WeatherUpdate #IndiaWeather #IN #AN #KL #TN #PY #LA #MH #GA #WP

In Maharashtra, while oppressive heat persists, several regions have experienced strong winds and thunderstorms over the past 24 hours, resulting in fatalities and damages, particularly in Sangli and Miraj, with forecasts indicating potential future thunderstorms and a heatwave in parts of Vidarbha and Marathwada, though the arrival of the monsoon is anticipated by the end of the week. #WeatherUpdate #Monsoon #MaharashtraWeather #IN #BD

In Maharashtra, while oppressive heat persists, several regions have experienced strong winds and thunderstorms over the past 24 hours, resulting in fatalities and damages, particularly in Sangli and Miraj, with forecasts indicating potential future thunderstorms and a heatwave in parts of Vidarbha and Marathwada, though the arrival of the monsoon is anticipated by the end of the week. #WeatherUpdate #Monsoon #MaharashtraWeather #IN #BD

In Maharashtra, after experiencing hot weather, severe winds and thunderstorms brought rainfall in some regions over the past 24 hours, leading to the collapse of a wall in Khilati village that resulted in the death of an eight-year-old boy and injuries to two others, while forecasts predict continued stormy weather for southern districts and possible heat waves in Vidarbha and Marathwada, with the arrival of the monsoon expected in Andaman by the end of the week. #WeatherUpdate #MonsoonSeason #ClimateChange #IN #AD #TT

In Maharashtra, while the hot weather persists, some areas have experienced gusty winds and rain over the past 24 hours, resulting in the death of an eight-year-old boy and injuries to two others due to a storm in the Sangli district, with forecasts indicating potential thunderstorms in southern districts and heatwaves in Vidarbha and Marathwada over the coming days, as the Indian Meteorological Department predicts the arrival of the monsoon by the end of the week. #WeatherUpdate #Monsoon #Maharashtra #IN #AS

In Maharashtra, despite the prevailing hot weather, several areas experienced severe winds and thunderstorms with rainfall over the past 24 hours, resulting in the death of an eight-year-old boy in a wall collapse in the village of Khalati, while damage to homes and livestock was reported in Miraj, with forecasts predicting more stormy rain in the southern districts and a potential heatwave in Vidarbha and Marathwada over the coming days. #WeatherUpdate #MonsoonForecast #HeatWave #IN #MH #AND

In Maharashtra, despite the ongoing hot weather, heavy winds and thunderstorms have caused rain in some areas over the past 24 hours, resulting in the collapse of a wall in Khalati village that tragically led to the death of an eight-year-old boy and injuries to two others; forecasts predict further stormy rain in southern districts in the coming days, while a heatwave persists in regions like Vidarbha and Marathwada, with a potential monsoon onset by the end of the week. #WeatherUpdate #MonsoonForecast #MaharashtraWeather #IN #GB #BNG

In Maharashtra, while hot weather persists, recent storms have caused significant damage, including the death of an eight-year-old boy due to a collapsed wall in Sangli, with warnings of further severe weather and heatwaves expected in the coming days. #WeatherUpdate #Monsoon #MaharashtraWeather #IN #AG

The Maharashtra Meteorological Department has predicted a rise in temperatures in several areas of the state, with heatwave warnings for parts of Marathwada and Vidarbha in the coming days, while also forecasting the onset of the monsoon, expected to begin by the end of this week in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. #WeatherUpdate #Heatwave #MonsoonPredictions #IN

The Indian meteorological department has issued a heatwave warning for parts of Marathwada and Vidarbha in Maharashtra, predicting a rise in temperatures over the next week, while also forecasting the onset of the monsoon, which may begin as early as this weekend in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. #WeatherUpdate #MonsoonForecast #Heatwave #IN

The Indian Meteorological Department has reported a rise in temperatures across various regions of Maharashtra, issuing heatwave warnings for parts of Marathwada and Vidarbha in the coming days while forecasting the onset of the monsoon amid a low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal. #WeatherUpdate #MonsoonForecast #Heatwave #IN

The Meteorological Department has forecasted a rise in temperatures across Maharashtra, with a heatwave warning for parts of Marathwada and Vidarbha over the coming days, while also predicting the onset of the monsoon, expected to begin in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands by the end of this week, with potential heavy rainfall in southern and northeastern India. #WeatherUpdate #MonsoonForecast #Heatwave #IN #BD

In Maharashtra, rising temperatures have been recorded, with the meteorological department predicting a heatwave in parts of Marathwada and Vidarbha over the coming days, while also forecasting the onset of the monsoon, expected to begin in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands by the end of this week, amidst warnings of above-normal heat conditions across various districts. #WeatherUpdate #HeatWave #MonsoonForecast #IN

The Maharashtra weather department has warned of a heatwave in parts of Marathwada and Vidarbha in the coming days, while also indicating the potential onset of the monsoon, with expectations of below-average rainfall for most of India, including Maharashtra, from June to September 2026. #WeatherUpdate #Heatwave #MonsoonForecast #IN

In the past two days, Maharashtra has experienced changes in its weather, with persistent heat alongside occasional rain and stormy winds, and forecasts suggest this pattern may continue, while a developing low-pressure system in southern India has the potential to transform into a cyclone, influencing monsoon conditions and leading to below-average rainfall for the region in the coming months. #WeatherUpdates #ClimateChange #IndiaMonsoon #IN #BR

The month of April was marked in France by great mildness and a near absence of rain, which led to significant soil drought, indicates Météo-France. (Original: Le mois d'avril a été marqué en France par une grande douceur et une quasi-absence de pluie, qui ont entraîné une importante sécheresse des sols, indique Météo-France https://t.co/JWFiPbDWME) #Drought #WeatherUpdate #ClimateChange #FR