Joren Vermeersch wrote that he did not view the closure of Starlink for Ukrainian drone operations on Ukrainian territory as a lever to make Ukraine stop attacking Russian refineries. According to him, Ukraine had already unilaterally halted those attacks at Trump's request. Vermeersch suspected that Trump might want to force Ukraine to withdraw from the non-occupied parts of the Donetsk province and hand them over to Russia. He derived this from Trump's statements that Zelensky did not want to reach an agreement and that Putin was more focused on an agreement than Zelensky. According to Vermeersch, Trump seemed to think that Putin would be willing to negotiate a ceasefire after such a Ukrainian concession. He described that expectation as dangerous wishful thinking and pointed out that, in his view, Putin also claimed the non-conquered parts of Zaporizhia and Kherson. According to Vermeersch, Russia had constitutionally annexed those provinces; the claimed areas also included both provincial capitals. A Russian presence there would give Russia, according to him, a foothold on the right bank of the Dnipro in two places, in view of a possible third phase of the conquest war. As the main obstacle to a ceasefire, Vermeersch mentioned Putin's demand that Ukraine unilaterally disarm and demilitarize. According to him, that would amount to capitulation and certainly provoke a new invasion. He wrote that Putin had repeated that demand in every diplomatic round, including during the last round in Moscow the month before, with Witkoff and Kuchner. Vermeersch believed that Trump was wrongly thinking that Putin did not take that demand seriously. Vermeersch argued that Ukraine could not afford dangerous wishful thinking, as it was fighting for the survival of its society, people, and state. Because Putin continued to insist on unconditional capitulation, Ukraine was forced to keep defending itself. He wrote that it would continue to do so until it achieved a ceasefire that left it free in the part of the country it had successfully defended. #Oekraïne #Rusland #Vrede (translated)



