JH Fonseca wrote that, after a turbulent day, Polymarket pointed to Flávio again with an 80% probability. According to him, the movement suggested an improvement in the monitoring of campaigns and the market. https://t.co/mDdLDWfxZm #Polymarket #Campanhas #Eleições (translated)
Hayy stated that the bettor identified as abkhauae, who allegedly invested $400,000 in Lula in the first round to pressure the market and reduce Flávio's chances, has started betting large amounts again. According to the author, the bettor has moved around $100,000 in new bets in the last 24 hours. #Política #Apostas #Mercado (translated)
Biaquinha 182_ stated that Polymarket had never been wrong about an election and pointed out that the platform indicated an 80% chance of victory for Flávio. In contrast, he said that polls showed a technical tie and questioned if PT supporters were not confident. #Polymarket #Eleições #Flavio (translated)
Americans believe that prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are just straight-up gambling and should be regulated the same way other forms of gambling are.
Pedro Menin said he did not trust isolated polls, but rather the average of surveys and betting odds. According to him, the average indicated Lula 4.3 points behind in the second round and worsening, while Polymarket gave Flávio an 86.5% chance. Menin stated that this was the last opportunity for the right and that if they lost, there would be no 2030. He urged his supporters not to waste votes, to stay focused until the 25th, to report false news, to participate in popular demonstrations, and to not miss the day of the 25th. He also said they would win and would make "them" pay for the lies. #Eleições2022 #Lula #Flávio (translated)
Fábio Talhari said he was following the release of surveys from PoderData, which usually published data between 7:00 and 7:30 AM, from Gerp, which generally released it around 8:00 AM, and from Futura, whose reports typically came out at the end of the day, around 4:00 PM. Regarding BTG/Pactual, he stated that there was no usual time and that the results were released by mainstream media throughout the day. He also requested an update from Polymarket and said that the last data he had obtained was the one he showed in the publication. #Pesquisas #Dados #Política (translated)
DAN stated that a Brazilian had studied for free at UBA and had insulted the taxpayers who, according to him, financed his career and Argentina. He argued that insulting a Brazilian in Brazil could lead to imprisonment and ended with a vulgar mockery aimed at the student. #Argentina #Brasil #Estudiantes (translated)
Polymarket and other betting platforms aim to become financial operators in Europe to circumvent gambling bans, seeking to obtain licenses that allow them to operate in all EU countries. #Scommesse #Finanza #Polymarket (translated)
A SPACE LIBERDADE wrote that, according to Polymarket, Flávio Bolsonaro had reached a 87.9% chance of defeating Lula in the elections. https://t.co/qbZTdOig4U #Eleições2024 #FlávioBolsonaro #Lula (translated)
Pri described the movement on Polymarket as a strong setback and stated that Flávio Bolsonaro had risen to 87.9%, a jump of 23.9 points in one day, while Lula had fallen to 12%. According to Pri, the market was consolidating the advantage of bolsonarism and reducing the president's chances in the market in the final stretch. https://t.co/v0ydkc1KC5 #Política #Brasil #Bolsonaro (translated)
Leandro Ruschel wrote that Flávio had increased his favoritism on Polymarket that day, reaching a 89% chance of winning. https://t.co/tSIlKckfpn #Política #Eleições2024 #Favoritismo (translated)
JH Fonseca stated that Flávio Bolsonaro had reached a 87% probability of being elected on Polymarket. He also said he believed that even members of the Workers' Party campaign were monitoring the tracking and betting on him. #FlávioBolsonaro #Eleições2024 #PolíticaBrasil (translated)
The article explores David Lisnard's surprising performance on Polymarket for the 2027 presidential election, questioning whether it represents a genuine comeback or merely an artificial increase in the odds. #Présidentielle2027 #DavidLisnard #Polymarket (translated)
The French Mileists contested information that they claim was relayed by Le Canard enchaîné and several accounts on X, alleging that accounts linked to David Lisnard's campaign had bet on Polymarket to artificially inflate his chances. They stated that the bets against Lisnard were, on the contrary, very concentrated on a single account named LLamaLoco, which reportedly wagered more than 420,000 dollars against him. The largest bet in favor of Lisnard was said to be 18,000 dollars, which, according to them, represents a ratio of 25 to 1 in amount and 2.5 to 1 in the number of shares bought. They added that LLamaLoco also wagered 200,000 dollars against Marine Le Pen and 28,000 dollars on a victory for Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and that Lisnard and Le Pen represented 70% of the current positions of the account on Polymarket. The account allegedly continued to bet against Lisnard and had been active for some time. The French Mileists stated that they do not draw any conspiracy-like conclusions from these elements but believe that, without these bets, Lisnard would be even higher. Finally, they indicated that Polymarket, on its site reserved for American citizens, estimated his chances of winning at 16%. #Politique #DavidLisnard #Polymarket (translated)
Julio Schneider stated that access to Polymarket was blocked in Brazil and shared the position that, according to him, appeared on October 5 at 4:25 PM EST: Flávio Bolsonaro had 83.1% and Lula, 17%. https://t.co/0WrB117zKj #Política #Brasil #Eleições (translated)
Rodrigo Constantino stated that Polymarket had performed much better than the polls in the first round, which, according to him, showed that the market was functioning. He said that the betting market assigned an 84% chance to Flávio's victory in the final result and predicted that Lula would be retired soon. https://t.co/r9FXrFSvt3 #Política #Eleições2022 #Apostas (translated)
The Trump supporter wrote that Flavio Bolsonaro had won by two points, with 99% of the votes counted: 47% compared to 45% for Lula da Silva. He noted that the second round would be in three weeks and described the result as the best possible scenario, almost unthinkable. He also indicated that Polymarket gave Bolsonaro an 85% chance of winning the runoff. https://t.co/3QWoh02U27 #Elecciones2022 #Bolsonaro #Lula (translated)
Felipe Leme wrote that his only bet on Polymarket was on Douglas Ruas, after a debate, when he was in Mexico. According to him, the bet was at 18% and was closed at 88%. Leme thanked Rio de Janeiro. https://t.co/j9JXdyzsAN #Polymarket #Debate #Brasil (translated)
Vicky Dávila wrote that Polymarket showed an increase in bets in favor of Flavio Bolsonaro for the presidency of Brazil, while Lula lagged behind. https://t.co/nb2dyBMENv #FlavioBolsonaro #Brasil #Política (translated)
Agustín Antonetti stated that all the polling companies in Latin America had failed and that Polymarket had once again been the only one to accurately predict the election results in Brazil. He also argued that traditional politics had been left behind and that open markets were the new way to analyze society. #Política #Encuestas #AméricaLatina (translated)
