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Emanuel Boeminghaus wrote that the markets could react to developments in France on Monday, especially regarding French government bonds. He disparagingly held a group in Paris responsible for the situation and warned of a possible rude awakening in the financial markets in the coming week. In his view, the Germans would ultimately bear the costs. #Finanzmärkte #Frankreich #Wirtschaft (translated)

In times of record-high national debt worldwide, which unsettles investors, chief market strategist Ronald Temple explains which factors to consider regarding government bonds and particularly highlights the impact of the interest rate increase in Japan on European markets. #Staatsanleihen #Verschuldung #Investitionen (translated)

Torsten Heinrich wrote that he has never rented from a corporation, but from private individuals who had invested in real estate alongside their jobs. He knows at least seven people who over decades built up to 150 apartments through saving and loans. Two of them constructed and rented out multi-family houses with loans; several started from scratch, including one person from a refugee family. Heinrich argued that private real estate investments also need to be measured against other investment options. Real estate has already performed poorly compared to government bonds or index funds; the main argument for them is the possibility of value appreciation, which is tax-free after ten years. However, this is countered by high renovation costs, as well as work and hassle with tenants. In contrast, paper investments require hardly any effort and, according to him, do not entail additional payments, such as for new insulation or heating regulations. According to Heinrich, the abolition of tax exemption after the holding period is another reason not to invest in real estate. Anyone assuming that the taxation of private real estate sales has no impact on construction activity is effectively making an intellectual capitulation statement. #Immobilien #Investment #Vermietung (translated)

Savers' enemies wrote that private landlords in Germany achieved an average gross return of just over 3 percent, although real estate coaches liked to suggest otherwise. He asked why landlords should deal with tenants, construction risks, time investment, and German tenant law when German government bonds offered a guaranteed return of 3.4 to 3.7 percent without such effort. At the same time, he criticized that politics continued to cut back the few tax advantages of real estate. #Immobilien #Vermietung #Rendite (translated)

Furkan Yildirim wrote that Bank of America has been examining the correlation between the yield of ten-year US Treasury bonds and stocks since 1962. At yields below 2 percent, the value was plus 0.5, and between 4 and 5 percent, it was plus 0.2. Between 5 and 6 percent, there was no correlation; at yields of 6 to 7 percent, the correlation was minus 0.3, from 7 to 8 percent minus 0.2, and above 8 percent minus 0.3. According to Yildirim, Bank of America explained the change by stating that low interest rates are usually associated with a strong economy, while high interest rates increasingly lead to inflation and expensive loans, making government bonds compete with stocks. The bank summarizes the thresholds, according to Yildirim, as follows: starting from 5 percent, investors become indifferent to stocks and bonds; above 6 percent, higher interest rates harm stocks, and above 7 percent, valuations decline significantly. The ten-year yield reached 5.36 percent in the previous week, the highest level since 2002, and had risen by around 0.7 percentage points since July. After inflation data on Wednesday, it jumped to 5.33 percent; at the time of his contribution, it was around 5.1 percent. Yildirim wrote that the market is already behaving as if yields were above 6 percent: according to Goldman Sachs, the correlation with the S&P 500 was minus 0.56, down from minus 0.64 in June – the lowest value since the start of the data series in 2011. Moreover, according to Yildirim, the ten-year bond is now yielding more than the S&P 500 generates in profits per dollar invested; this was last the case in the early 2000s. As an indication of the importance of inflation, he mentioned that high interest rates during times of high inflation have almost always been a burden for stocks. US inflation was at 3.7 percent in September, up from 3.4 percent in August; gasoline had cost 34 percent more than a year earlier. After the data, the probability of another Fed rate hike in October increased from about 20 to 47 percent. #Börse #Aktienmarkt #Zinsen (translated)

Emanuel Boeminghaus wrote that France is dragging everyone down into the abyss and the warnings are getting louder. In comparison, the financial crisis was a kindergarten. Citing Clemens Fuest in the Handelsblatt, he reported that the ECB would intervene if the interest rates on French government bonds continued to rise. Boeminghaus concluded that this would lead to severe inflation. https://t.co/kRa2iARmhx #Frankreich #Finanzkrise #EZB (translated)

Furkan Yildirim wrote that the US Treasury could auction fewer long-term government bonds as early as November and possibly discontinue the 20-year term altogether. According to Yildirim, Citigroup expects Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent to announce a $3 billion reduction in auctions for 20- and 30-year bonds each on November 4. The financing gap is to be closed with government securities maturing within a year at the latest. The department may also ask large banks next week whether pension funds now prefer bonds from Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet to those of the state. The 20-year bond was reintroduced in 2020 after a 34-year hiatus and now offers nearly 5.7 percent interest, more than any other US maturity. At the end of 2020, its yield was just under 1.5 percent. At the same time, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, and SpaceX had already issued dollar bonds amounting to more than $180 billion in 2026; according to Yildirim, Amazon's bonds extend to 2076. According to asset manager TwentyFour, which Yildirim cited, Japanese investors are now receiving enough interest at home to invest their money there. Citi strategist Jason Williams wrote that pension funds may currently be more inclined than usual to invest in long-term corporate bonds of good quality. However, BNP Paribas strategists doubted that smaller auctions would reduce the government's financing costs. Yildirim also pointed out that the yield on 10-year US bonds serves as a basis for mortgages and many other loans, and Bessent had referred to it as an important measure of his success. With an annual deficit of nearly $2 trillion, the debt burden continues to grow as competition for long-term buyers increases. #Finanzen #Anleihen #Wirtschaft (translated)

Experts believe that the Bitcoin low may already be behind us, as the price development increasingly depends on the high yields of US government bonds, and the market has coped well with the current external conditions despite resilient technology stocks. #Bitcoin #Kryptowährung #Finanzmarkt (translated)

The rising French debts and the associated increased risk premiums for French government bonds put pressure on the Euro, leading to a decline to a 17-month low against the Dollar and raising concerns about possible impacts on the entire Eurozone. #EuroSchwäche #Frankreich #Schuldenkrise (translated)

FOMC Zusammenfassung / Statement: US Wirtschaft ist stabil Arbeitsmarkt ist stabil Inflation: Warsh hat heute klargemacht, dass sie den Kampf gegen die Inflation ernst nehmen und Sie bereit sind die nötigen Schritte einzuleiten. Obwohl ÖL und Energiekosten vor allem wegen der Schliessung von der Strasse von Hormuz zustande gekommen sind, wird man trotzdem die Inflation beobachten und dementsprechend reagieren. Also stehen vermutlich noch weitere Zinsanhebungen in DIESEM Jahr im Raum. Was heisst das jetzt für bitcoin:native ?: Beobachtet folgende Komponenten: DXY (Stärke Dollar) --> Steigt der weiter ist das bearish Staatsanleihen --> Steigen diese weiter ist das bearish #Trump: Wenn Trump aufgrund der Ereignisse, irgendwie auf den Tisch haut und Krawall und Unsicherheiten schürt, dann denke ich, ist das nicht positiv. (Gab hierzu Gerüchte). Die nächsten Tage werden spannend und es wird sich zeigen, wohin wir gehen. Der Bärenmarkt ist laut Zeit und Daten immer noch aktiv. Wolf #FOMC #Inflation #Zinsen

Der Artikel thematisiert die Finanzpolitik der USA unter Donald Trump und seinem Finanzminister Scott Bessent, der versucht, durch massive Rückkäufe von Staatsanleihen die Zinsen vor den Kongresswahlen zu senken, wodurch jedoch das Vertrauen in Amerikas freien Kapitalmarkt gefährdet wird. #Finanzpolitik #USAnleihemarkt #DonaldTrump