Search

Retired Colonel Maciej Korowaj assessed that the Military Intelligence Service's warning about possible diversionary actions at the border with the Kaliningrad region could fit into a Russian operation aimed at provoking a Polish reaction, and then exploiting the lack of an incident to undermine trust in the services. He noted that this was his speculation, and open sources did not allow for establishing whether the threat was real or what its scale was. Korowaj recalled that, according to information from the Commander of the Police, the Military Intelligence Service warned of the possibility of diversionary actions, including the intrusion of armed groups. A special operations headquarters was established at the Police Headquarters, and full readiness was ordered for November 2–8. Wirtualna Polska reported that soldiers from GROM were directed to the border area to operate together with police counter-terrorists. Analyzing Russian sources, Korowaj indicated that the Baltic Fleet practiced repelling attacks by diversionary groups on October 25, and on November 1, combat divers searched the naval port in Baltiysk. He added that on October 27, the administration of the Nesterov district published instructions for action during drone attacks, and a draft decree limiting the publication of information, including about the military and air defense, was posted on the district authorities' website. Korowaj stated that he did not find signals in Russian sources about troop movements, closing border areas, or new restrictions for the population that would indicate preparations for cross-border actions. However, he noted that Russian media presented the Polish warning as a pretext and recalled earlier statements by Russian representatives. According to Korowaj, the Russian goal could have been to create a situation where Polish actions would be interpreted by the political dispute parties as an attempt to divert attention or as evidence of destabilizing the state. He pointed out that the warning appeared in a week of tensions surrounding the Constitutional Tribunal and the opposition's announcement of a vote of no confidence. Possible indicators for further developments included the coordinated linking by Russian media of border operations with the crisis around the Tribunal, as well as the future of the draft decree and the case of the detained Polish citizen. #Kaliningrad #Bezpieczeństwo #Wojna (translated)

We have the ability to overinterpret. The Tu-95MS disaster caused a lot of speculation. Meanwhile, there is no point in speculating. We shouldn't attribute any intentions to people suggesting things, as legends then circulate. Operational commander, Maj. Gen. pilot Ireneusz Nowak, sarcastically wrote that "Perhaps this particular one was the carrier of the Ch-101, which ended its flight near Tarnawa!" Just that, and that is enough. I am lucky to personally know General Nowak; he is from the old guard of the F-16, people trained in the USA, pilots often retrained by veterans of American military actions, mentally shaped as "tactical minded." Among this group were the first base commanders, division generals Darek Malinowski and Czarek Wiśniewski, along with Jacek Pszczoła, also a division general, a laid-back person who cannot be ruffled, and at the door of his office in Łask, there was at one time a sticker with a large wasp. They are exceptionally competent people, calm but capable of making quick decisions and unafraid of the responsibility for them. Another characteristic feature is truly outstanding intelligence. Why am I writing about this? Because people at this intellectual level often fall into the trap that what is clear and obvious to them is incomprehensible to others, and their minds drift into fascinating directions, to places that make one’s hair stand on end, wondering how it is even possible. That was the case this time as well. The flood of comments is overwhelming; personally, I was stunned. Scholars of the holy scripture wrote that the general suggests it was Polish saboteurs from Kedyw-bis. What can drop on a person's head, drops (in my case, my jaw, both hands, and the other leg). Maj. Gen. Ireneusz Nowak DOES NOT SUGGEST ANYTHING LIKE THAT. This is a gross overinterpretation. He only wrote that it may have been this Tu-95MS that fired the Ch-101 missile, which landed in Poland, as established as a result of deliberate action, not a mistake (such an impact point was in the navigational system’s memory, the only chance for a mistake being incorrect input of coordinates, which is very unlikely). Additionally, the missile did perform a classic "bump" with a vertical attack, driving into the ground almost at a right angle to it, executing the attack at the programmed location. Since the Tu-95MS belonging to the 22nd Guards Donbas Heavy Bomber Division from Engels (now Olenia) and to the 326th Tarnopol Heavy Bomber Division from Ukraine rotate to Engels or, less frequently, to Akhtubinsk to fire the Ch-101 at Ukraine for several hours, it is theoretically possible that this aircraft launched that missile (about 1 in 40 odds, as there are that many of them). What Maj. Gen. Ireneusz Nowak REALLY suggested, Mark Rutte, the Secretary General of NATO, somewhat more directly stated. The experienced politician knows that you have to lay it on the line for the simpletons because they will twist everything. They will make things up, add remarks, and generally go off in the wrong direction. Mark Rutte said several really important things: "Vladimir Putin knows he can never win against NATO; NATO is so strong that Russia has no chance of overcoming it." What does this mean? That NATO MUST BE UNITARY. WE MUST NOT ALLOW OURSELVES TO BE DIVIDED. He added: "NATO will defend every square kilometer of its territory. There is no doubt about it, and Putin knows this (...) If anything happens, we are ready to respond." “Well, first, about the word 'hybrid' – I have said this many times already. It sounds a bit too mild, almost cozy. In reality, we are talking about aggressive tactics in the gray zone. What we are dealing with is hostile drones, acts of diversion, sabotage, and even massive cyberattacks." "But I want to make it clear: we have all the response options we need. You will not always see them publicly. They will not always be symmetrical. It will not always operate on a 'tit for tat' basis, but I assure you that we have the tools for effective response, and the Russians know this perfectly well." THIS IS KEY. NATO IS NOT PASSIVE. NATO has many different tools for hybrid responses to Russia's hybrid attacks. And if Maj. Gen. Nowak suggested anything, IT WAS JUST THAT. You just need to understand it, know the context, listen to the statements of leading NATO politicians, and everything will become clear. And further Mark Rutte: “I do not claim that these malicious actions in the gray zone do not affect us. They do affect us, and sometimes it is very evident. However, our response can be multidimensional. Let’s look at the past. When, at the end of 2025, an underwater cable between Finland and Estonia was damaged, we launched Operation Baltic Sentry to protect our critical dilatory infrastructure. This was an example of a symmetrical response. But what happens next is asymmetric actions. More and more allies, such as Sweden, the United Kingdom, Belgium, or France, are taking coordinated steps to maximize the disruption of the Russian 'shadow fleet'. We are doing everything to make those rusted tankers stop generating the profits the Kremlin uses to fund its war machine." "Yesterday, the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe (SACEUR) stated plainly: 'Whenever you are able, when you are almost certain that the Russians stand behind an attack, publicly assign them the blame.' Just like Estonia did today. I fully support this and encourage it. Share all intelligence information with NATO and SHAPE structures. Russia continues its reckless campaign of hostile actions against NATO, trying to weaken our resolve and force us to stop supporting Kyiv. But it is failing. Our message to Moscow is clear: in response to any actions in the gray zone, we will do even more for Ukraine, not less. Because ultimately their only goal is to divide us so we lose focus and start arguing among ourselves." NATO is responding. NATO is providing Ukraine with a lot of ammunition. And Ukraine sends it further, to where it needs to land with a bang. NATO makes it harder for the shadow fleet to operate. It combats Russian spy networks; since the outbreak of the full-scale war in Ukraine in February 2022, NATO member states have expelled around 750 Russian diplomats: Bulgaria 83, Germany 80, Romania 52, Poland 45, France 40. How many "one-time saboteurs" are recruited in Russia for pennies remains a sweet mystery. But there, strangely enough, many different failures occur: trains derail, various things catch fire, blackouts appear, etc. Much of this is done by Ukrainians, but is it all? Who knows, who knows... Today, such saboteurs are rented online for pennies, massively, like cheap drones. They do it, and can we? And how do you know that there are no other intrigues? For example, discreet info in Kremlin circles that one is conspiring against another. Therefore, NATO has tools and can respond, which it is doing. Mainly in the field of cyberattacks that Russia is feeling. As for the Tu-95MS itself - if three engines go out at once, assuming it is true, in most cases it is due to fuel issues, either a break in fuel supply to the engines or fuel contamination, blocked filters, etc. Ukraine has seriously damaged the refineries producing aviation fuel. Often this production has been taken over by other refineries when technically possible. You can easily guess the quality of this fuel. So there could have been "not enough kerosene in the kerosene." Another issue is that the intensive use, these long hours of flights from Ukraine or Olenia to Engels, suspending missiles, and flying to launch over the Caspian Sea (if something goes wrong, the missile falls into the water), and then returning to the home base is about resources, resources, resources... Old bombers and their engines are wearing out at an accelerated pace. How do you think maintenance, spare parts, and technical servicing levels are? Well, exactly, the Russian bomber fleet is systematically degrading, and this can only be pleasing. Because we don't need those bombers for anything. In the picture, a "noisy cricket," the Tu-95MS, code-named "Bear" by NATO. Phot. Runet Dear friends, if you like it, and if I should dedicate my time to it, if you want to read something, I will ask for a coffee, it’s only 10 or 20 PLN. Best regards to everyone and a big thank you to those who buy coffees. https://t.co/pPHnCSlfpS #NATO #Rosja #UkraińskaWojna (translated)

Prokuratorzy dali się rządzącym wpuścić w „kanał”. Cześć prokuratorów awansowanych za obecnej władzy nagle ze zdumieniem odkryła, że są bezpardonowo atakowani przez polityków z jednego obozu (tzw. demokratycznego/demokracji walczącej). Otóż nie chodzi wcale o kwestię prokuratorskiej niezależności, bo nigdy politycy obecnej władzy nie chcieli się na nią zgodzić (kto pamięta co robił @donaldtusk z Prokuratorem Generalnym Andrzejem Seremetem i jak groził jego odwołaniem, aby zmuszać go do określonych działań politycznych?). Prawdziwa przyczyna ostatnich ataków władzy to początek wskazywania Państwa - prokuratorów - jako winnych braku „rozliczeń”, czyli sztandarowego programu politycznego @Obywatelska_KO. Prokuratorzy stali się kozłami ofiarnymi. To dlatego nagle dziennikarze wypuszczają informację o naradzie w KPRM, w trakcie której mówiło się o „buncie prokuratorów”. #SilniRazem muszą mieć jakieś wyjaśnienie dla niezrealizowanych i - powiedzmy sobie szczerze - nierealistycznych od samego początku obietnic wsadzania opozycji do więzień pod byle pozorem. A politycy właśnie zaczęli im to wyjaśniać: „my chcieliśmy, ale taki @d_korneluk, prok. Szeroczyńska i inni to pisowscy dywersanci”. W tym miejscu jesteśmy. I nie będzie lepiej. #Polska #Prokuratura #Polityka

Gójska o EGZEKUCJI Skrepeckiego przez ruskie służby w Białej Podlaskiej. "Sprawców z Białorusi przywiózł taksówkarz, któremu grożono bronią. Ludzie z bronią przejeżdzają przez POLSKO-BIAŁORUSKĄ granicę". To samo modus operandi co ruscy dywersanci na kolei, którzy spieprzyli. https://t.co/lO8zkMwiMr #Polska #Białoruś #Bezpieczeństwo