Arvydas Anušauskas

Russia got a seat at the G20 table, but not a place in the family photo. Yet it can still use the room to its advantage. History shows that “taming” dictators through engagement rarely changes their goals—it gives them another platform to pursue them. #G20 #Russia #Dictatorship #RU

Belarus has become the Kremlin’s emergency fuel supplier. Yet even redirecting all of its gasoline exports to Russia would replace only a fraction of the refining capacity lost after Ukrainian strikes. The losses now far exceed what Belarus can replace. #Belarus #Kremlin #FuelCrisis #BY #RU #UA

Russia has cut rail freight to Estonia, Latvia and Finland, but not via Lithuania and Belarus. Closing this route would isolate Kaliningrad, which still depends on about 3 million tonnes of non-sanctioned goods via Lithuania. The Kremlin won't shoot itself in the foot. #Russia #Kaliningrad #Freight #RU #EE #LV #FI #LT #BY #PL

Even when only a fraction of Ukrainian drones reach their targets, Russia is forced to spend billions on air defenses. The winner is not always the one launching more missiles, but the one creating threats at lower cost and forcing the enemy to defend more expensively. #Ukraine #Russia #Drones #UA #RU

On this day in 1941, the first mass deportations from Lithuania began. Families were woken at night, forced into cattle cars and sent deep into Siberia. Today, Russia destroys memorials to victims of Soviet terror while committing new crimes in Ukraine. #Lithuania #SovietTerror #Ukraine #LT #RU #UA

After destroying nearly 150 Russian air defense systems this year, Ukraine has expanded its ability to strike deep inside Russia. More than 25 oil refineries and major fuel terminals were targeted in just 40 days, increasing pressure on Russia’s war machine. #Ukraine #Russia #War #UA #RU

Zelensky’s letter to Putin was an unexpected move. But its tone and content reveal who currently holds the initiative. One side is proposing meetings, ceasefires and prisoner exchanges, the other is preparing plans for 2027 and 2028. #Zelensky #Putin #UkraineRussiaWar #Therearenospecificcountrycodesrelevanttothecontentofthetweet.

U.S. troops remain important for the defense of the Baltic States and NATO’s eastern flank. Continuous rotations without reducing troop numbers would be the best option. In the face of continued Russian aggression, alternative decisions would benefit no one. #USArmy #NATO #BalticStates #US #EE #LV #LT #RU

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