The author wrote that the IRGC appeared to have the same strike capabilities as in April–May, citing developments over the previous few days. They estimated that levels had returned to those seen in April–May after a ceasefire-related outflow in June–July.
The author said survey data showed prices rising and argued that the “OIL GLUT 2.0” narrative was pointless because inflation data was already beginning to reflect the impact of the Hormuz crisis. They added that bond markets were responding to the data, rather than to low-quality satellite images.
The author wrote that severe food inflation appeared likely this year, followed by a full-scale food crisis next year, unless there was a drastic change—an outcome they said seemed unlikely.
The author wrote that credit spreads on junk debt were rising sharply and that lending in that part of the market appeared to be seizing up.
The author claimed that oil was flowing into the sea, not smoke, and said this would significantly increase the global oil glut. They added that TankerTrackers had confirmed it as a major development in what they called the ongoing “englutification” of world oil markets.
The author claimed that the growing number of “smoked tankers” had forced UK_MTO to report incidents with a delay because its system could not handle the volume. #Shipping #OilMarket #TradeNews #UK
The author said voters in Hungary had chosen modest change and that Péter Magyar had presented himself as its representative. They portrayed Magyar as psychologically unstable and dictatorial, described him as impossible to work with, and criticized Brussels for supporting him. https://t.co/xfKXYsSmIG #Hungary #Politics #Brussels #HU #EU
The author described the Magyar government as a dictatorship and claimed it was so unstable that it was turning against potential allies and excluding liberal journalists from press conferences. They said this was damaging Hungary’s relations broadly and characterized the situation as a complete meltdown. #Hungary #PressFreedom #Dictatorship #HU
The author wrote that Saudi-backed forces in Yemen were crumbling, describing the situation as another layer of what they called “OIL GLUT 2.0.” They said conditions in the Middle East were worsening and criticised the United States for relying on influencers. #Yemen #MiddleEast #OilGlut #YE #SA
The author wrote that insurance pricing implied roughly a one-in-three chance of a VLCC being destroyed, and said Iran controlled that risk. They called the situation a waste of human life, argued it would not affect the energy situation and said those promoting it appeared to enjoy bloodshed. #Iran #Energy #Insurance #IR
The author claimed that an oil glut was causing explosions near Qeshm Island, saying oil flowing out of the Strait had backed up and built up pressure until islands in its path exploded. #Oil #Environment #QeshmIsland #IR
The author argued that Western governments had lost control of their energy supplies, saying bond markets were beginning to reflect this and that events were nearing a “final act.”
The author wrote that Brent had risen back above $100 and claimed the “OIL GLUT 2.0” operation had barely affected prices while causing deaths and devastation in the Middle East and serious reputational damage to Kpler. They also described those in control as incompetent. https://t.co/CdubkAofqB #BrentCrude #OilMarket #MiddleEast #ME
The author warned that Eastern Europe could face a serious refugee crisis this winter, saying it could completely destabilise Hungary and Poland. #RefugeeCrisis #EasternEurope #HumanitarianAid #HU #PL #UA #EU
The author said the Strait was opening more than previously expected, with earlier reports indicating 180 degrees of openness and the latest suggesting 270 degrees. They speculated it could reach 360 degrees in the coming weeks, claiming Iran was close to collapse. #Iran #Geopolitics #Openness #IR
The author said the black arrow showed the strait as fully closed, while the red arrow indicated it was temporarily open because of a ceasefire. They said Kpler data, represented by a blue arrow, showed it as about half open, and asked whether that presented a problem.
The author said the attack showed that Iran could see ships with their AIS turned off just as well as other vessels. They questioned why ships would disable AIS, suggesting it could be for propaganda: creating a “shadow fleet” hidden from the public and shaping perceptions of its size to influence markets. https://t.co/jf3xByyUi1 #Iran #AIS #Shipping #IR
The author said few people were asking why the IRGC was attacking ships, given claims that the number of vessels transiting the Strait was far lower than advertised. They described the counterargument as relying on blurry images comparable to Bigfoot sightings. #StraitOfHormuz #IRGC #MaritimeSecurity #IRGC #STRAIT
The author described the world as being in severe turmoil, claiming that wars were accelerating worldwide, bond markets were breaking down and diesel shortages were occurring. They also criticized an unnamed X user for saying the Strait of Hormuz was fully open, expressing disbelief in the claim.
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