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Philip Pilkington

50 posts
Profile compiled from news and social media.

Philip Pilkington

Irish economist
@philippilk · 51,653 Followers

Russian sanctions crumble as the oil crisis bites. The sado-masochistic loonies in the EU will be the last to do it. 🇪🇺 #RussianSanctions #OilCrisis #EUSanctions #RU #EU

Deep insight into the EU mindset: while the constitutional structure of Hungary can be torn up if they don’t like the president, the “independence” of the central bank - a politically flimsy category - is sacrosanct. These people worship technocracy - and only technocracy. 🇭🇺🇪🇺 #EU #Hungary #Technocracy #HU #EU

Some think I’m just highlighting the excesses of the liberal-authoritarian @magyarpeterMP regime in Budapest because I live here. But the reality is that, as this behaviour becomes normalised, it will spread across the EU. A centralised Brussels ruling over local autocrats. 🇪🇺 #Budapest #EU #Authoritarianism #HU #EU

The autocratic PM in Hungary @magyarpeterMP is completely out of control. Local media criticised him and he responded by telling the CEOs of two media companies to step down. We have not seen anything like this in Europe since the fall of the USSR. Will Western libs support it? #Hungary #MediaFreedom #Autocracy #HU #EU

This is key. People called Trump “authoritarian” but when he won both times he accepted the power given to him and worked within it. True autocrats like @magyarpeterMP want TOTAL power and will settle for no less. These are genuinely dangerous “leaders” in a Western system. 🇭🇺 #Trump #Authoritarianism #Leadership #HU

The much-benighted “saviour of Hungarian democracy” has turned out to be an authoritarian huckster who is trying to overthrow the Hungarian constitutional order by threatening people. You can find how to establish these tinpot autocrats in Applebaum’s “how to” manual. https://t.co/qVNBQppZVo #HungarianDemocracy #Authoritarianism #PoliticalManipulation #HU

Europe’s oil sanctions are starting to crumble. Decent chance Russia will escalate against Europe at the same time as Europe begs Russia for energy supplies. The low IQ Brusselsocracy have no strategy. 🇪🇺📉 https://t.co/rHwpeWIH6s #OilSanctions #Russia #EuropeEnergy #EU #RU

It really feels like something is coming. Very likely it starts as a plausibly deniable drone and missile war on Europe. This will be the beginning of the end of Europe - under pressure of this and an existential energy crisis things will start to come apart. Very sad. 🇪🇺📉 #Europe #DroneWar #EnergyCrisis #EU

The new Hungarian government is creating complete chaos in Budapest because they are intent on some retarded and fake “revolution”. This is lunatic. Someone needs to oust the man-child @magyarpeterMP and restore order. Otherwise foreigners and foreign investment will leave. https://t.co/KhdHByh7qN #BudapestChaos #HungarianPolitics #RestoreOrder #HU

Budapest is getting rough really, really quickly. The new government has disbanded the Hungarian anti-terror police. The place is spiralling. I was just in the centre. Sirens. Helicopters flying overhead. This is a mess. 🇭🇺 https://t.co/1bycqALbPg #Budapest #Hungary #Crisis #HU

(TR) "Activate the 21st sanctions package."

Europe today is an unstable, incoherent mess. Orban allowed these mediocrities to hold the mess together by giving them an enemy to unify against. Now that he is gone, they’re starting to turn on each other. A circular firing squad is forming. 🇪🇺 #Europe #Orban #PoliticalInstability #EU

AI isn’t going to turn into Skynet and destroy or enslave humanity. But it might well colonise your company, suck up a ton of resources, and produce nothing but its own self-replication. 🤖 #AI #Automation #BusinessRisks #Nospecificcountrycodesarementionedinthetweet.

Walls are closing in now folks. Silently in the background, commercial energy inventories have been running down. Now we’re 2-3 weeks out from the beginning of the crunch. It’s going to hit like a sledgehammer. 🛢️❌ https://t.co/AYtC8rvchR #EnergyCrisis #InventoryDecline #MarketWatch #Thetweetdoesnotmentionanyspecificcountries #sotherearenocountrycodestoreturn.

Imagine getting into government and one of your first actions which involves extremely suspicious asset freezes ends up screwing up your ability to hold the UEFA final. A serious authoritarian regime wouldn’t do this. It’s clown authoritarianism. 🇭🇺🤣 #Authoritarianism #UEFAFinal #Hungary #HU

I don’t think we have ever seen anything like this in US politics in history. Whatever negative you can say about US politics it is highly responsive. What happens when the GOP gets wiped out in a few months and consumers have their living standards destroyed!? 🇺🇸 https://t.co/ILMbIZ5sGl #USPolitics #GOP #LivingStandards #US

Unless the reporting is wildly off there is no possibility of a deal because the two sides fundamentally disagree over Iran’s enriched uranium. The fact markets can’t just read publicly available information shows how broken they are. 🇺🇸🇮🇷 https://t.co/HMbnZ2u9lj #IranNuclear #Uranium #MarketInsights #US #IR

The Americans know that the Russians are about to massively escalate and so they’re protecting their diplomats. @kajakallas, on the other hand, is a monster who does not care about the lives of EU diplomats and is willing to sacrifice them for propaganda victories. 🇪🇺☠️🪦 #Diplomacy #Russia #EU #US #RU #EE #EU

They are doing this because they know there is risk that Europe continues to dig in as Russia escalates which will likely end in some sort of missile war. Europe will be left to take the hits and governments all over the continent will then collapse. 🇺🇸🇪🇺 https://t.co/4q9HJbaV9Z #Europe #Russia #MissileWar #US #EU

I am sort of impressed with Anne Applebaum’s “How To” guide describing how you create low-trust authoritarian systems in democratic countries from a technical economic perspective. BUT creating these regimes will have a detrimental effect on the economy as we are now seeing. 🇭🇺 https://t.co/o3PZWU6XcE #Authoritarianism #Economy #Democracy #HU

As far as I can tell this is fake. China have not changed their position and, given Putin’s recent trip to Beijing, he likely cleared the strikes with his partners. Starting to sense general panic in certain quarters that Russia is moving up the escalation ladder right now. 🇨🇳🇷🇺 #China #Russia #escalation #CN #RU

China announced Logic Folding which raises the probability that they will succeed in commoditising the global chip market. The market reaction? Pile into American memory chip stocks. I don’t get it. 🫧 https://t.co/5f77fblaNi #China #ChipMarket #Investing #CN #US

Peace deal in the Middle East not looking great. This whole thing has shown clearly that markets cannot price in geopolitical risk in a world where the US can no longer unilaterally control these sorts of conflicts. 🇺🇸🇮🇷 https://t.co/z0chnlhvpu #MiddleEast #Geopolitics #MarketRisk #US #IR

The Russians are clearly signalling that they are going to escalate after recent developments. The Europeans do not seem to understand how escalation works and are continuing to act as if war is an opportunity to signal virtue. No adults in the room. This could go south quickly. https://t.co/CJv5F6c0qt #Russia #Escalation #Geopolitics #RU #EU

The Chinese just poached the guy that was working on TSMC’s 3-nanometer chip production in Japan. 🇨🇳 https://t.co/4XfzslkrNx #TSMC #ChipProduction #China #CN #JP

This is probably the most convincing attempt publicly available to model when something seriously starts to change on the Ukrainian front. We know static fronts collapse quickly when they collapse - now we have a sense of when it might collapse. 👇👇👇 #UkraineWar #MilitaryAnalysis #FrontlineChanges #UA

Huawei claim that their new approaches to chips will mean they no longer need ultraviolet lithography technologies and they’ll catch up with TSMC in 5 years. The sanctions have once again just encouraged innovation. 🇨🇳 https://t.co/FUBTQyZYvr #Huawei #Chips #Innovation #CN

Strange things happening in European energy markets as the global energy crisis hits the continent. 🇪🇺🇬🇧 https://t.co/LPlsj82LHQ #EnergyCrisis #EuropeanMarkets #GlobalEnergy #EU #GB

That sucking sound is the Russians withdrawing energy supplies as Hungary experiences its worst energy crisis in decades. I hope the virtue signal was worth it. 🇭🇺🇷🇺 #Hungary #EnergyCrisis #Russia #HU #RU

Actual footage of an Oreshnik delivering its payload. Prior to this we only had grainy bigfoot footage. Interesting that the people taking the video - who I assume are just average Ukrainians - know what they’re looking at. 🇷🇺🇺🇦🚀 #Oreshnik #UkrainianConflict #DroneFootage #RU #UA

First they stopped deliveries to Taiwan now to Japan. It looks like the “pivot to Asia” has become a “pivot away from Asia” after the Trump trip to Beijing. 🇺🇸🇯🇵 #PivotToAsia #Taiwan #Japan #TW #JP #US

The fake revenue scam is also probably behind the obviously fake GDP growth in the US. The fake revenue loop juices the “Investment” component of GDP and allows GDP numbers to rise while the real economy remains mired in stagnation. 🇺🇸🫧 #FakeGDP #EconomicScam #USRecession #US

Very likely America surrender to Iran. The disruptions to shipping are too far gone though. We’re still getting extensive inflation and energy crisis. 🇺🇸🇮🇷 #America #Iran #Inflation #US #IR

GDP is growing at a healthy 2.7% in the US. GDP statistics in the US are clearly completely broken and no longer make any sense whatsoever. 🇺🇸 #GDP #USEconomy #EconomicGrowth #US

The Hungarian liberals complained for years about sovereigntist media linked to the Orban government. It’s now clear what the alternative they wanted is: media controlled by the government of a foreign country. 🇭🇺 #Hungary #MediaFreedom #Sovereignty #HU

It appears that Britain is preparing itself for nuclear conflict with Russia. Pretty funny that leaders in the country don’t understand the relative landmasses and how Britain would cease to exist in maybe 20 minutes of such a conflict. 🇬🇧🤡 https://t.co/ZTleiZGGQV #NuclearThreat #UKRussia #GlobalTensions #GB #RU

Worth watching whether these weapons ever get delivered or whether the US is dumping Taiwan after the Trump trip to Beijing. There is a decent chance Taiwan is getting dumped. 🇺🇸🇹🇼 #Taiwan #USForeignPolicy #TrumpChinaTrip #US #TW

Turkey has effectively dedollarised. It was driven by pressure on lira but they mainly dumped USD assets instead of EUR assets, clearly signalling that the former was the worse investment. 🇹🇷💵 https://t.co/hEeN94pqq1 #Turkey #Dedollarisation #Lira #TR

A lot of developing countries are going to start selling reserves to prop up their currencies so they can afford food and fuel as shortages bite. This is already leading to a rapid acceleration of dedollarisation. The world can no longer afford to prop up America’s deficits. 💵📉 https://t.co/RH9p1wyCQe #dedollarisation #currencies #foodshortage #Therearenospecificcountrymentionsinthetweet #sonocountrycodeswillbereturned.

THIS is why Jensen Huang was eating street noodles in Beijing. The chip war has backfired against America dramatically. It has led to China starting to commodify the global chip market. 🇺🇸🇨🇳 #ChipWar #Beijing #TechTrade #US #CN

Bloomberg notes that this time is different. G7 countries just about made it through the COVID and Ukraine War inflationary crisis and budget blowouts. This time it’s looking like endgame. The shock is too large, the debt-loads are too heavy - this could be the Big One. 💥 https://t.co/K7dtLo1QI4 #G7 #InflationCrisis #EconomicEndgame #G7

New Hungarian government prepares for bankruptcy due to the energy price cap blowout I highlighted last week. They try to cover it up because Orban or whatever. This is a one-trick pony government that is steering the economy toward disaster at high-speed. 👇🙈 https://t.co/ov3dE4NHEP #Hungary #Orban #EnergyCrisis #HU

RT @zerohedge: *TURKEY LIQUIDATED ALMOST ALL ITS US TREASURY HOLDINGS IN MARCH Turkey dumped their gold AND their treaesuries #Turkey #USTreasuries #Gold #TR

Transaction volumes on China’s CIPS system - its alternative to the SWIFT system - have increased fourfold since the start of the year. The global RMB is already here. At this point early adopters should probably integrate CIPS into their payment architectures. 🇨🇳 https://t.co/jYfPmTG7gX #CIPS #RMB #FinTech #CN

While the new Hungarian government prioritises booking second class tickets on Polish trains to save a few zloty, Hungary faces its worst cost of living crisis since the mid-1990s. No serious preparations have been made for the looming energy shock. It will hit very soon. 🔗👇 https://t.co/jx0BWHAA3w #Hungary #CostOfLivingCrisis #EnergyShock #HU #PL

Highest yields since the Great Recession. But its worse than that. Look at the Fed Funds rate relative to the 30y: the yield curve is much steeper. This is “forced high rates” not “chosen high rates” as in 2007. 🇺🇸🏦 https://t.co/MiylUPud0W #YieldCurve #FederalReserve #EconomicPolicy #US

My guess is that China and Russia are willing to let Trump own the Iran mess until the energy crisis bites this summer. Then they’ll start to help him dig out before winter as it gets really bad. The aim is to “shock the gorilla” and stop all the volatile behaviour. 🇺🇸🇷🇺🇨🇳 https://t.co/Q5f9iPopuk #IranCrisis #EnergyPolitics #Geopolitics #US #RU #CN #IR

The Europeans are now starting to beg Russia to send them diesel. The situation is clearly desperate yet still people are not being told. They should be restricting consumption now rather than this extend and pretend. 🇬🇧🇷🇺 https://t.co/bBeSQ1S81y #Europe #DieselCrisis #EnergyDependence #GB #RU

It’s going to be a rough couple of months in Europe. Hungary is just a case study. Everywhere is facing this. We’re sleepwalking toward it. Link in comment. 🔗👇 https://t.co/NObjRqio2H #EuropeCrisis #Hungary #EconomicChallenges #EU #HU

The United States is NOT energy independent. Most of the oil produced in the country is “light oil”. Good for gasoline/petrol. No good for diesel. When the shortages hit America will almost certainly have a diesel crisis - which means an infrastructure crisis. 🛢️❌ https://t.co/OfMc3VOphn #EnergyIndependence #DieselCrisis #OilShortage #US