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Philip Pilkington

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Philip Pilkington

Irish economist
@philippilk · 51,653 Followers
4 Followers

Here we go everybody…. The Private Credit/Equity markets are starting to crack up. There is a decent chance these vehicles are full of junk residential property debt because shadow banks replaced bank lending to the sector this cycle. 🇺🇸🏠 #PrivateCredit #ShadowBanks #RealEstateDebt #US

Massive shorts in place in the US bond market this week. Let’s see if it turns into a perpetual attempt to short US Treasuries. 🇺🇸🏦 https://t.co/0526DYggkz #USBonds #Treasuries #ShortSelling #US

Inflation in the UK is starting to tick up. Core inflation is flat. It’s all due to energy. This is what we saw in 2021-22. Energy leads, then gradually feeds into food prices - after that wages rise and services inflation goes up. This will be a bigger one than 2021-22. 🇬🇧 https://t.co/iuxIFL2Xh3 #inflation #UKEconomy #energyprices #UK

This bout of “demolished living standards” will be a lot worse than 2021-22 - and we still haven’t really recovered from that. #LivingStandards #EconomicCrisis #RecoveryChallenges #Thetweetdoesnotmentionanyspecificcountries.Therefore #therearenocountrycodestoreturn.

Interference in the oil markets has led to complete confusion amongst US businesses. They have no idea how to even set prices because of the antics in the oil futures market this summer. These interventions have screwed up price allocation across the board. 🇺🇸 https://t.co/gEyinaSeji #OilMarket #PriceAllocation #USBusiness #US

US living standards are bring propped up by foreigners buying AI stocks. If the bubble bursts there’s a good chance the US dollar goes with it. 🇺🇸 #Economy #AIBubble #USDollar #US

It looks like the Saudi monarchy are about to do a suicide run. Imagine if they'd just stopped the blockade... So much easier... Too late now... 🇸🇦 #SaudiArabia #Blockade #Monarchy #SA

With Europe testing the boundaries of war with Russia it looks like we're going to have start "Sabotage Watch" to monitor the situation with proper due diligence. 🇪🇺🇷🇺 https://t.co/4J6bO9wU0s #SabotageWatch #Russia #Europe #EU #RU

Ah... German weapons procurement that allows officials to bypass checks and balance to ensure IMMEDIATE DESTRUCTION of the Putler regime FOREVER AND EVER? Very good! 🇩🇪💪 https://t.co/PnYZz2XzBC #GermanWeapons #PutinRegime #MilitaryProcurement #DE #RU

Reminder that this happened yesterday. The Germans - and the Polish Foreign Minister who just takes orders from London - are trying to pull Europe into a war with Russia. 🇪🇺🇷🇺 https://t.co/Rag4xjLmY1 #Europe #Russia #Poland #DE #PL #GB #RU

The Saudi pipeline is being completely demolished by the Houthis. Their efficacy is pretty shocking. 🇾🇪🇸🇦 #Houthis #SaudiPipeline #MiddleEast #YE #SA

The neo-communist government in Budapest under asset stealing dictator @magyarpeterMP has closed the museum documenting the excesses on the Hungarian communist secret police. It’s pretty obvious what direction this is moving in - and the fake EU “liberals” support it. Ugly. 🇪🇺🇭🇺 #Hungary #Communism #EU #HU #EU

This was announced 12 hours before. The Europeans are gradually setting up the conditions to enter the war. They will not last long in such a scenario. What happens next is unpredictable. But nothing good, I’d imagine… 🇪🇺🇷🇺 https://t.co/PUPFt0qI3O #Europe #War #Unpredictable #EU #RU

Markets are betting there will be a 1% rise in short-term interest. Even ignoring other pressures this would like put 10-year rates at over 6% just from Fed hikes. The crisis is getting crisiser. 🇺🇸🏦 https://t.co/FDfeDTkyGa #InterestRates #FedHikes #MarketTrends #US

Britain is now halfway into a fiscal crisis. The Bank of England announced that it is reversing its Quantitative Tightening program. So they are effectively holding QE-based monetisation in place to stop interest rates rising as the economy goes into an inflationary spiral. 🇬🇧🙈 https://t.co/Etcja0UDEF #FiscalCrisis #BankOfEngland #Inflation #GB

Very good chance governments are prepping for energy lockdowns… 🛢️❌ https://t.co/YwXtwvEMmj #EnergyLockdowns #GovernmentResponse #FuelCrisis #Thetweetdoesnotmentionanyspecificcountries #sotherearenocountrycodestoreturn.

Oil executives confirm what the futures price is saying: the energy crisis is here. It was postponed for the summer through a series of irresponsible tricks that will only make it worse. But now it’s here. 🛢️📈📈📈 #EnergyCrisis #OilPrices #FuturesMarket #Therearenospecificcountriesmentionedinthetweet.

The petrodollar is dead. It’s probably not coming back. Saudi Arabia might collapse. And the US attack on the territorial integrity of the UK, the UK might start to dump Treasuries too. The fever in the global markets is rising. 🥵🌶️ #Petrodollar #GlobalMarkets #EconomicCollapse #SA #US #UK

It looks like the DF-15A may have been fired by Saudi Arabia. Apparently the Saudis have a rocket force called the Royal Saudi Strategic Missile Force. Reports say they have DF-3 and DF-21s so not a huge surprise they have DF-15s too. Not a great weapon to hit the Houthis though. #SaudiArabia #DF15A #MissileForce #SA #YE

It looks like the Houthis are eliminating the Saudi air force. If the Saudis don't figure this out pretty quickly the monarchy might just end up collapsing. 🇾🇪🇸🇦 #Houthis #SaudiArabia #MiddleEast #YE #SA