Nico Lange wrote that Vladimir Putin spoke for 3 hours and 20 minutes during a speech and a moderated stage discussion at the Valdai Forum on October 1, 2026. From his statements, Lange derived five central points of a Russian strategy. According to Lange, Putin portrays Russian aggression as a reaction to Western attacks or provocations. In doing so, he justifies the war of aggression against Ukraine, prepares the population for a prolonged confrontation, and presents Russian escalations as responses. At the same time, in Lange’s estimation, Putin wants a European security order in which Russia can co-determine decisions. This includes, according to the author, a weakening of NATO, especially its eastern flank, political division and economic destabilization of the EU, as well as an expansion of Russian influence in Central and Eastern Europe. Lange wrote that behind Putin's demand for Ukrainian neutrality are the exclusion of NATO and EU membership as well as a Western orientation. Putin also aims for permanent territorial control over large parts of Ukraine and political control over the country. His statements that Ukraine cannot exist independently and is controlled from the outside were interpreted by Lange as an attempt to question its independence and justify Russian influence. According to Lange, Putin also presents a possible Russian escalation, even to the use of nuclear weapons, as a necessary defense. This is intended to deter NATO and European states from a consistent defense of the Baltics and the Baltic Sea region. Lange referred to Kaliningrad, which he described as Europe’s most militarized area, and wrote that a NATO defense could hit air defense, missile sites, and military infrastructure there. Putin depicts the Russian economy as stable and resilient according to Lange, while he does not address the human and economic costs of the war. Lange wrote that Putin sees the economy mainly as a geopolitical pressure tool against Europe, a war resource, and an instrument for maintaining power. Overall, according to Lange, Putin wants to create a European order dominated by Russia, where Ukraine is subjugated and Moscow controls spheres of influence. #Putin #Geopolitik #Ukraine (translated)
