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The author wrote that the key clue was a warning against the Baltic Sea becoming like the Strait of Hormuz, which they described as a sea lane controlled by a single dominant entity other than the United States. The post was addressed to Alexander Stubb and Yleisradio. #BalticSea #Geopolitics #InternationalRelations #FI #SE #EE #LV #LT

The author wrote that Russia would remain a long-term threat to Europe and said the continent was entering a period of heightened confrontation. They added that it would create opportunities unavailable for more than 35 years, but said completing the task would require political courage not seen for generations. #Russia #Europe #Geopolitics #RU #EU

GRANDPAS' ELECTION GAME So, what caught my eye were the recent ALREADY public statements by trump that new attacks on Iran are being prepared immediately after the elections... The fact that preparations were underway had been known for some time, but personally, I was surprised that he started making this public right before the elections. Because for a long time, he himself had been bullshitting about how exactly after the elections, they would be seeking an agreement with Iran. And EVEN more importantly - fuel prices were supposed to go down after the elections! It's all bullshit, obviously. Just lying to the voters, BUT... why start talking about continuing the war right before the elections, when the majority of voters don't want either the war or rising prices at gas stations??? I think it's worth remembering the fact that America has the most corrupt president, and his actions are influenced not only by the fake tsar from russia, but also by another old man from Israel. That is netanyahu, with a large Jewish lobbying network in America, private deals with the kushners, witkoffs, and trump himself. In Israel, as we know, elections have already taken place, and netanyahu failed to get his pre-election fireworks out of trump, but it's worth explaining what he was trying to achieve: netanyahu starts bullshitting again about Iran's atomic bomb. On October 21, he once again publicly started talking about how those guys are DEFINITELY DEFINITELY making that bomb AGAIN right now. Then he posted an atomic explosion in Tel Aviv on social media (he probably learned how to post from trump by now). And, of course, he AGAIN tried to tell everyone that the only way to eliminate the threat is to destroy the Iranian regime. Again, I'm not saying Iran is run by a bunch of good guys. No, no. But I simply don't believe the jew who has been telling us for about 35 years that Iran will DEFINITELY DEFINITELY have a bomb next week. And + every now and then he also suspects other neighbors of developing those bombs. Those atomic bombs are really in fashion in the Middle East. Personally, I trust USA intelligence more, which very CLEARLY said even before the war, earlier this year - NO, they are definitely not making a bomb and there is no such THREAT as being portrayed. Israel and USA have recently intensified air military exercises over Syria. A new Iranian attack was being simulated. And at the same time, Israel, taking advantage of the situation, repeatedly sent dozens of fighter jets with an aerial refueling aircraft through Syria, across Iraq, directly toward Iran. So that it would look as if they were flying to attack. And then, right near the border, they turned around. In other words, they were provoking Iran, hoping that Iran would see it as a threat and attack. Moreover - USA has ALREADY delivered new Patriot air defense systems and a replenishment of missiles to Israel. AT THE SAME TIME as supplying Ukraine with barely two missiles per month, even when the Ukrainians have made actual missile purchases. Cash in the pocket has a lot of influence, and the Jews, as I already mentioned, don't spare money when it comes to trump's family. Why is all this being done? BECAUSE netanyahu wanted to provoke an extension of the conflict before the elections and take advantage of it. After all, only he can protect Israel from an existential threat. BUT... a) Iran did not fall for the provocations. b) Even the Israeli army chief publicly clashed with netanyahu because he refused to launch military actions before the elections. c) trump also refused to launch an attack before the elections taking place in America. And that's how it turned out, netanyahu's existential threat stories no longer worked in the Israeli elections, and the elections ended with neither side managing to secure a majority. So now intense negotiations are underway to form coalitions. The bloc controlled by netanyahu, which also includes super extreme radical parties, has 53 seats. And the political opponent Gadi Eisenkot's party - 48 seats. And then there are the Arab parties, which unexpectedly gathered as many as 19 seats. So there are some nuances there, but to put it simply, if the Arabs form a coalition with Gadi, then Israel will have a new prime minister. So WHY does netanyahu now need to renew the war with Iran so badly? @ To maintain and strengthen the coalition with the radicals. Well, because netanyahu somehow needs a political majority, and to achieve that, it just so happened that in recent years he had to unite forces with extreme parties led by radicals of VERY questionable reputation. @ To divert attention from the investigations into the October 7, 2023 hamas attack. BECAUSE recently there have been huge protests in Israel demanding answers as to WHY security failed to work the way it was supposed to. And netanyahu has been dragging out these investigations for a long time. @ The fact that public support is expected in the face of a threat, but this is already such an outdated and overused trick that it simply no longer works even in Israel. So, here's the situation now: 42 days are given to form a coalition. During this time, netanyahu needs to launch new attacks against Iran. This time, WIN, meaning actually overthrow the Iranian regime, thereby strengthening his leadership position and convincing other parties to join his coalition. And THEN netanyahu will remain prime minister. And I suspect THAT is WHY netanyahu is pressuring trump to launch military actions sooner, and that's why trump may also be starting to prepare the public for new fireworks even before the elections. And it's also important to understand that Israel CANNOT start a war alone. BECAUSE they simply don't have the capabilities to do it ON THEIR OWN. It's critically important for netanyahu that USA starts first and netanyahu acts only as a supporting ally, rather than the one escalating the war. Well... because public opinion, coalition, and so on... you understand. So the whole pre-election interesting part now is that trump, I repeat - EVEN BEFORE the elections, starts talking about war, when this is completely unacceptable to American voters. And that automatically reduces the Republicans' chances of securing a majority in Congress. And then there is a possibility that the Democrats will be able to disrupt trump's military actions. And then the already SUPER small chances of defeating the Iranian regime become even smaller. Of course, it's likely that trump will start attacks anyway, because he is simply committed to Israel (don't look for some personal 5D masterplan by trump here, he's not capable of that). And then finally netanyahu may be able to retire, and as a result, the influence of Israel's radical parties will weaken. One way or another, after this whole story of election games, it's worth mentioning that Iran also already has plans for a response, and if necessary, it will not only cut the internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz, but also shoot back pretty hard. AGAIN across the entire region. And then, obviously, the whole story of rising fuel prices will drag on for even longer. And obviously, even more Patriot missiles will be used up, which will then be begrudged to Ukraine. That's all for today about the delusions of old farts trying to change the world. P.S. Hey, follow me for more interesting geopolitics stories.

As tensions in Serbia ease, new jokes arise in the Balkan region. Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev accuses Bucharest of escalating the conflict in the Black Sea. On October 26 during the Sofia Economic Forum, Prime Minister Radev stated that Romania publicly accused Russia of drone attacks, which were followed by new strikes. "When I accuse, I must have clear evidence," he said. Romania responded, stating that Bucharest has always relied on concrete evidence, including debris from Russian drones, provided to the Russian ambassador. Why such a statement now? On Sunday, November 1, Bulgaria will hold the second round of presidential elections. Radev's protégé Iliana Yotova is leading, but she needs the so-called "peace" electorate. The "peace electorate" in Bulgaria is similar to that in Lithuania – supporting Vaitkus, Nemunas sausage, and other misunderstandings. Radev is unsettled because pro-Western and anti-corruption candidate Andrey Gyurov is hot on Yotova's heels. If Yotova wins, it would extend his rule. If Gyurov wins, Radev will have a president who controls him. Therefore, the Prime Minister is now showing his electorate: "I am not a pro-war advocate, I am a voice for peace, I do not attack Russia without evidence, and Bucharest is escalating." This is the message to that electorate we have written about. However. Just yesterday, on October 28, following this statement, the fifth strike occurred in Bulgaria's economic zone – the ship "Contship Jet," carrying 421 containers, was attacked while heading to Constanta. Thus, the peace rhetoric has not brought peace. #Balkans #Geopolitics #Bulgaria #Romania #BlackSea #BALKANIJA (translated)

The author wrote that familiar arguments were being heard more often, including that it was time to talk to Russia, that Russia did not need the war, and that it understood the conflict was going nowhere as it saw its troop losses mount. https://t.co/pWupBClcKq #Geopolitics #Russia #War #RU #US

The author said the findings suggested that Russia was believed to be assisting Iran and its regional allies in attacks targeting Saudi Arabia’s oil and military infrastructure, which they said had contributed to higher global energy prices. https://t.co/489Vy2Nt5k #Geopolitics #EnergyCrisis #MiddleEast #RU #IR #SA

The author described a call involving Putin, Stubb and Støre as effectively a monologue, saying Putin spent most of it lecturing them about medieval Slavic history. They characterised the call as a symbolic gesture and claimed it was the only form of respect Putin valued, before questioning why such calls took place. https://t.co/9MOEsoNtHA #Putin #Geopolitics #History #RU #FN #NOR

The author wrote that Russians had a long history of geopolitical manoeuvring with Europe and the United States. They urged readers to distinguish ordinary people from political actors, adding that Russians and Americans understood the difference. The post tagged Donald Trump, JD Vance and Dmitry Medvedev. #Geopolitics #Rusia #EstadosUnidos #RU #US #EU

The author wrote that they had argued for close to 20 years that the Nordic countries should unite and avoid geopolitical conflicts involving Russia and the United States. They said a Nordic Union could be self-sufficient in energy and food to the extent possible today. https://t.co/DGCl1KFTnp #NordicUnion #EnergySelfSufficiency #Geopolitics #NO #SE #FI #DK #IS #RU #US

The author argued that AI had an imperial dimension, writing that China and the United States had empire-like qualities before the AI race began. They described Washington as the incumbent, citing its global military advantage and alliance network, and began to say it supplied the currency used for “the lion’s share of” something, but the post ended mid-sentence. #AI #Geopolitics #Technology #CN #US

Tomorrow, on October 25, Serbia will elect a new parliament. Essentially, this is a referendum on Aleksandar Vučić's over a decade-long rule. It all started on November 1, 2024, in Novi Sad, when the roof of a newly renovated station collapsed, killing 16 people. Over the two years since this tragedy, a powerful anti-corruption youth (student) movement has gained momentum. In this election, they are participating for the first time as a political force (Student List No. 3), led by cardiologist Ilija Srdanović. Opposing them is the ruling SNS, whose list is headed by Vučić himself, who resigned from the presidency on September 27 to run for prime minister. Polls show that both forces are neck and neck—about 115 mandates for each—but the opposition is gaining ground. Everything will depend on whether Vučić's old partner SPS and the pro-European "European Serbia" can overcome the 3 percent threshold. In-depth analysis - on Balkans Substack #Balkans #Geopolitics #History #Serbia #Substack #Election #Balkans #Geopolitics #History #Serbia #Substack #Election (translated)

MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING Okey, this is NEW to me. NEW that I'm trying a fresh European social network, which I hope will succeed and NEW to me that I'm trying to write english analysis. I'm a geopolitics writer from Lithuania who has a dedicated reader base on facebook and growing my base on youtube. So this is just me trying to reach a bigger European audience. Hope you like it. Now with my post: Have you noticed that we've gone right back to early 2025? And how quickly regimes change their propaganda narratives whenever the situation shifts or they see an opportunity? We've just had two weeks that really felt like a repeat of early 2025. Suddenly, there's pressure to end the war AGAIN. Suddenly, concessions to Russia and excuses for its actions AGAIN. Pressure on Ukraine AGAIN. The same fake negotiators travelling to meet the fake tsar and sucking up to him AGAIN. Military aid to Ukraine being blocked AGAIN. New/same proposals to end the war AGAIN. And suddenly, kremlin propaganda is treating the americans as friends AGAIN. AND NOTHING... Nothing will change, because it always hits the same wall. russia demands territories that never belonged to it, that it does not control and that it cannot conquer. The Americans want Ukraine to accept this condition because trump simply wants the war to end, no matter the terms. Well... Ukraine refuses to be blackmailed. Once again. Okay, there is one small difference. In early 2025, trump was trying to show that he was delivering on his promises AFTER the election. In late 2026, he's trying to convince the next wave of voters that he's still relevant BEFORE the election. The really interesting part is that Ukraine is in a much better position today than it was in early 2025. Back then, Trump told Zelensky that he had no cards. Now he's asking Zelensky not to play the entire hand of cards he actually holds. YES, there was a bit of panic among all of us. It's certainly not pleasant when the USA starts throwing obstacles in Ukraine's way. The good thing is that these episodes have always been temporary. Because the whole world quickly finds out what the americans have done, and eventually they run out of room to manoeuvre. First, because it becomes embarrassing. Second, because they often end up creating problems for themselves. Every restriction on intelligence sharing, every starlink restriction and every suspension of weapons deliveries is seen around the world for what it is: blackmail. And after every trump-style act of blackmail, America suddenly starts losing economic partners and arms customers, while Europe accelerates the development of its own systems and works to free itself from dependence on the United States. And this latest attempt by trump to portray putin as the saviour of the US economy and Zelensky as the man to blame for high diesel prices? I'd say it has backfired spectacularly. Trump's approval rating has fallen to 31%. Meanwhile, Zelensky's approval rating has surged AGAIN, reaching 57% in polls towards the end of October. Well... as I've said before. Every time trump attacks Zelensky, and especially every time he starts shouting that Zelensky should be removed from office, Zelensky refuses to back down and stands up for Ukraine. And the Ukrainian people rally behind him. So, after all this déjà vu nonsense, trump himself revealed two days ago that musk had restricted starlink operations in Ukraine and had supposedly been asked to restore the connection. (The fact is, both of them had a hand in this.) And the news media quickly started reporting that everything was back to normal. BUT... no. Nothing has actually been fixed. Yesterday, trump once again started saying that if the restrictions are still in place, he will most definitely sort everything out. In other words, we're seeing the same stalling tactics as with the restrictions on intelligence sharing. In short, musk got angry because Ukraine is striking russian data centres. And trump is probably just as angry for exactly the same reason. Because these attacks undermine his election propaganda campaign. Speaking of data centres, today the Ukrainians struck a particularly SIGNIFICANT one. The target was a data centre belonging to russia's federal xax service. Why does this matter? It stores and processes tax records and other government information. If the damage is extensive, this could cause the russian authorities far more trouble than a disruption to online payments. Unfortunately, all we know so far is that the building's exterior was damaged. Whether the interior was affected remains unclear. Now, back to those boomerangs coming back to hit America after its blackmail tactics. European telecommunications companies are ALREADY discussing how to join forces and strengthen a common European mobile communications network. To make this possible, the European Commission decided earlier this year that, once certain agreements with foreign partners expire, some frequencies used by European satellites would be allocated to European companies rather than foreign ones. Well... put simply, spaceX and its starlink service could lose access to certain frequency bands in Europe. And the Americans are furious about it. Meanwhile, following all this starlink nonsense, the Ukrainians are joining forces with Finland's NOKIA and ICEYE to develop their own domestic satellite communications system. And this brings us to the main point: trump's blackmail tactics are coming back to hurt him and his best friend, the fake tsar, in a big way. russia will NOT get territories that never belonged to it and should never belong to it. Instead, it will ultimately destroy itself in this senseless war. By trying to pressure Ukraine, trump has effectively thrown a spanner in the republicans' works just before the elections. Europe has started calling trump what he is: a traitor. And Ukraine, together with Europe, is moving even further away from America's hostile administration while gaining greater independence. It will be a very strange period if, as we hope, America really does experience a Blue Wave in the elections. The Democrats, with a majority in Congress, will try to rebuild relations with Europe and help Ukraine, while a politically isolated president will probably obstruct their efforts out of spite over his election defeat. Either way, we still have a long way to go before the elections. And as the rift between Europe and America continues to widen, we're also seeing growing US pressure on Europe and attempts to interfere in our internal affairs. Returning to starlink, trump and musk are already publicly ranting that Europe will face consequences if it tries to restrict the activities of American companies on our continent. And this interference in European affairs is also clearly visible in Trump's comments about the protests taking place across Europe. I'll be publishing several detailed articles about that over the weekend. Meanwhile, several significant decisions concerning Ukraine were made in Europe this week: 1) Ukraine has been allowed to purchase weapons through NATO's procurement agency. In other words, procurement should become faster and more cost-effective. 2) EU leaders have expressed support for Ukraine's steps towards EU membership. More and more negotiating clusters are being opened. 3) The EU has also unanimously rejected the idea of territorial concessions. 4) There is also increasingly serious discussion about a new, additional €70 billion aid package for Ukraine for 2027. Once again, there are cautious references to those frozen russian assets. It's probably an unlikely option, but it would certainly be nice to see it happen. I won't try to come up with some magical conclusion. The point is simply that we shouldn't worry too much that some Trump might suddenly force Ukraine into capitulation or somehow make it accept concessions. And we shouldn't expect the war to end just yet, either. Not because we don't desperately want this nightmare of terror to end, but because russia simply isn't ready to stop fighting. All those Kremlin statements about being willing to negotiate are nothing more than an attempt to extract concessions in advance. So, once again, this is a good time to support Ukrainian soldiers' fundraising campaigns. Still, I can at least wish you all a good weekend. --------- P.S. I use capital letters for those that I respect, and small letters to those that I have no respect. You get it. Follow me for more in-depth articles about Europe, Ukraine, USA, war with russia, war with Iran, Middle East, China and all kinds of interesting geopolitics topics. The following ones will be about the ongoing protests/riots in Europe.